How Has Patriots’ Offense Gotten This Historically Bad?

The Patriots were roundly and deservedly mocked for choosing to have a defensive coach and a special teams coach lead their offense last season.

They were widely celebrated when they replaced those overmatched coaches with an experienced and accomplished offensive mind who enjoyed prior success in New England and spoke the same language as quarterback Mac Jones.

This was supposed to be a reenergized, much-improved offense that would revive Jones’ career and propel the Patriots back to playoff contention. But five weeks into the Bill O’Brien era, New England’s offense is not better than it was under Matt Patricia and Joe Judge.

It is, in a truly shocking development, substantially worse.

Following their 34-0 loss to the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, the Patriots rank dead last in the NFL in:

— Points per game (11.0)
— Points per possession (0.87)
— Percentage of possessions that produced points (16.1%)
— Expected points added per play
— EPA/dropback
— EPA/rush

Last season’s 17th-place finish in points per game (21.4) was inflated by New England’s seven defensive/special teams touchdowns. But the 2022 Pats still scored on twice as many possessions (32.8%) and nearly doubled up the current team in points per drive (1.63).

This season’s group also is 26th in total offense, 28th in yards per play, 29th in yards per carry, 27th in yards per pass attempt, 28th in third-down conversion rate, tied for 31st in fourth-down conversion rate and tied for second-to-last in turnovers.

The Patriots’ red-zone conversion rate is 10th-best, which is nice, but they advanced inside the opponent’s 20-yard line just once in the last three games (and settled for a field goal).

Expected points added measures how a team performs relative to expectation on a play-by-play basis, and the Patriots offense’s current mark of -88.37 is the fifth-worst through five weeks since the stat’s tracking began in 1999, according to NFL Index data shared by Boston Sports Info.

The four teams below them all finished the season below .500, and three won five games or fewer.

Patriots

Have the 5th worst offense rush/pass EPA, thru 5 weeks, since tracked in 1999

1. JAX – 2013 – (-104.68)
2. MIA – 2004 – (-100.86)
3. NYJ – 2019 – (-95.28)
4. CLE – 2009 – (-91.72)
5. NE – 2023 – (-88.37)

historically inept

source: @nflindex https://t.co/8QvDx1KPFf

— Boston Sports Info (@bostonsportsinf) October 9, 2023

The conventional metrics aren’t any kinder. The Patriots have gone 10 straight quarters without scoring a touchdown of any kind, were outscored 72-3 over the last two games and have allowed 69 unanswered points.

Their scoring output has shrunk each week: 20, then 17, then 15, then three and finally zero Sunday. It was their first shutout loss since 2016 when they had a third-string rookie quarterback (Jacoby Brissett) playing with a broken thumb.

What the heck happened? How is an offense that looked legitimately improved this summer and showed glimmers of progress in Weeks 1 through 3 now struggling to even score a single point? There’s no obvious answer, but it begins with a lack of talent on the offensive line and at wide receiver.

Head coach Bill Belichick tried to patch the Patriots’ clear and obvious hole at right tackle with scotch tape (free agent pickups Riley Reiff and Calvin Anderson) and bubble gum (late-summer trades for Vederian Lowe and Tyrone Wheatley Jr.), and that position has been a disaster all season. Injuries to and poor play from guards Cole Strange and Mike Onwenu compounded those O-line issues.

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On the outside, Belichick’s decision to let reliable top wideout Jakobi Meyers walk in free agency and replace him with JuJu Smith-Schuster looks like a spectacular failure. Smith-Schuster looks cooked, with just 14 catches and a dismal 6.1 yards-per-catch average through five games. His yardage output in the last three games: 5 against the Jets, 14 against the Cowboys and 6 against the Saints before suffering a head injury in the third quarter.

DeVante Parker (12-129-0) also has given the Patriots next to nothing after signing a contract extension this summer, and Kendrick Bourne’s contributions have been sporadic (18-218-2). Second-year pro Tyquan Thornton got hurt in training camp and has yet to return. The most explosive pass-catcher on this roster is a sixth-round rookie, Demario Douglas, who’s now in concussion protocol and might not play this Sunday against the Las Vegas Raiders. And Douglas was seeing only limited playing time even before his injury.

The QB deserves blame, too. Things have been ugly around him, but Jones’ poor decision-making and recent penchant for turnovers (six in the last two games; three returned for touchdowns) is actively hurting the team. And his backup, Bailey Zappe, hasn’t looked any better in two garbage-time relief outings.

This is everyone’s fault. Belichick’s for his lackluster roster construction; O’Brien and offensive line coach Adrian Klemm for not getting the best of their units; and the players for failing to execute. It’s a top-to-bottom mess with no quick fix in sight.

Belichick suggested changes could be coming this week, saying the Patriots “need to make some improvements from where (they) are.” Will they be enough to save this seemingly broken offense?