Patriots Mailbag: Who Will Be Odd Man Out At Receiver?

Time to empty another New England Patriots mailbag. Here’s what was on our readers’ minds this week:

@ashley1992__
Hi Zack, with Reagor signing to the 53, what do you think that means going forward to the wr position? Who will be affected the most? Do you think someone gets traded?
I’m very curious to see how the Patriots handle their receiving corps in the coming weeks, especially with Jalen Reagor now part of the 53-man roster after his promotion on Thursday.

That roster now features seven wideouts, and none of them were listed on the Patriots’ latest injury report. They typically don’t have more than five receivers active on gameday, so, barring any late setbacks, that means you can expect at least two to be healthy scratches this Sunday against the Miami Dolphins.

One of those likely will be rookie Kayshon Boutte, who hasn’t played since catching no passes on four targets in 55 snaps in Week 1. The LSU product seems to be a purely developmental player at this point.

The other scratch? That’ll be fascinating to see.

In my view, the Patriots have three wideouts who are trending upward: Demario Douglas, Kendrick Bourne and Reagor. Douglas and Bourne (a possible trade candidate) are their top two passing-game playmakers by a wide margin. And though Reagor only has one catch this season, the 2020 first-round pick’s playing time increased in each of the last two games.

The rest all are trending in the wrong direction.

JuJu Smith-Schuster is out of concussion protocol, so he’s in better shape physically, but he was a massive disappointment before his injury, posting some of the worst stats of any starting-caliber receiver over the first five weeks. He plays the same position as Douglas, too, and the Patriots cannot justify shrinking the rookie’s role after how he performed in last week’s upset win over the Buffalo Bills (four catches, 54 yards, one 20-yard carry, three drawn penalties).

DeVante Parker, who got a new contract extension this summer, has two catches for 15 yards in the last two games combined, and his 58% snap rate against Buffalo was his lowest of the season.

Out of NFL wideouts who have seen at least 20 targets this season, Smith-Schuster and Parker rank 74th and 80th in yards per route run, per Pro Football Focus. Douglas is 18th, and Bourne is 37th.

On ESPN Analytics’ receiver rankings, which combine player tracking data measuring separation, catching ability and yard after catch, Parker’s overall score is 76th out of 81 qualifiers, and Smith-Schuster is dead last. Bourne is 11th.

And then there’s Tyquan Thornton, who’s been a complete nonfactor since coming back from his latest stint on injured reserve. His stats through two games: three targets, two catches, 8 yards. The 2022 second-rounder played just three snaps against the Bills and was seen repping with special teamers at practice this week. (He’s never played a special teams snap in his career.)

The Patriots don’t need to have all seven of these players on their roster, especially when more than half of them aren’t producing. How they structure their depth chart against Miami will say a lot about how they view this group.

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@cookedbysnoopy
Can we still make the playoffs?
Yes. But to do so, the Patriots essentially need to win this Sunday.

A total of 23 teams since the 1970 merger went on to make the playoffs after starting 3-5. At 2-6, that number drops all the way down to three. And while two of those were in the last three years, their situations aren’t really comparable.

The 2020 Washington Football Team got in by finishing 7-9 and winning an awful NFC East, and the 2022 Jacksonville Jaguars won nine games to win the AFC South and earn its automatic bid. Those records almost certainly won’t be good enough to win the AFC East, and no team ever has made the playoffs as a wild card after starting 2-6.

If the Patriots lose this week, might as well sell off whoever you can ahead of next Tuesday’s trade deadline, beef up your stash of draft pick and start planning for 2024.

Beat Miami, though, and they actually have a pretty favorable path over the next month-and-a-half or so. Their next five games after this one are:

vs. Washington
vs. Indianapolis (in Germany)
Bye week
at New York Giants
vs. Los Angeles Chargers
at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Commanders, Colts, Giants and Chargers all are below .500 entering Week 8, and the 4-2 Steelers aren’t playoff shoo-ins. If the Patriots continue to play the way they did against Buffalo last week, there’s a real chance they could have a winning record heading into their Week 15 matchup against the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs.

Of course, that’s a huge “if,” as New England hasn’t proven it can do much of anything consistently this season. Sunday really is make-or-break.

@thatredsoxguy
Any idea on what Zappes role is moving forward? And how the team plans to utilize him? And if he’s in the long term with this team?
Bailey Zappe regained his status as QB2 last week, and I imagine he’ll keep it against Miami, though I am curious to see whether Will Grier will be able to leapfrog him at any point this season.

As for whether Zappe is part of the Patriots’ long-term plans, I would say no. That could change, but remember, they were willing to cut this guy two months ago, and he didn’t look especially good in either of his appearances since. I expect them to be looking to upgrade at the quarterback position this offseason, even if they decide to stick with Mac Jones as their starter in 2024.