Will Patriots Break This Alarming Drought After Trade-Free Deadline?

The New England Patriots opted not to move any of their contract-year draftees ahead of Tuesday’s NFL trade deadline, retaining Josh Uche, Kyle Dugger and Mike Ownenu despite reported interest from other clubs.

The rumors surrounding those three standouts will slow for the next several months as the Patriots play out the rest of the 2023 season, which continues Sunday with a matchup against the Washington Commanders at Gillette Stadium. But after New England’s quiet deadline, it’s worth spotlighting a few important decisions it’ll need to make come spring.

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Dugger, Uche and Onwenu all are set to hit free agency for the first time when the 2024 league year opens in March. If they don’t reach agreements on contract extensions before that time, they’ll be free to negotiate and sign with any NFL team.

All three will have markets. Dugger is a versatile, athletic, playmaking safety who’s played nearly every snap this season. Onwenu is a Pro Bowl-caliber right guard and also the best right tackle the Patriots have had in years. Uche is a rotational player in New England’s defense, but he’s a stud pass rusher who’d have a much larger role in other schemes.

They’re the headliners of the Patriots’ first above-average draft class since the mid-2010s, snapping a run of whiff after whiff that sapped New England’s roster of young talent at the end of the Tom Brady era and beyond. Now, the question is whether the Patriots will break with recent tradition and re-sign any member of that trio.

What tradition? Well, the Patriots simply have not re-upped many of their draft picks lately, especially those taken in the early rounds. The last New England player drafted in Rounds 1-3 to receive a second contract with the team was safety Duron Harmon, who entered the league a full decade ago (third round, 2013).

From 2014-19, the Patriots selected a total of 19 players in the first three rounds, and none of them re-signed after their rookie deal. The closest was guard Joe Thuney, who was franchise-tagged ahead of his fifth season, then signed with Kansas City for big money the following year.

That full list includes some of the most infamous draft busts in Patriots history, plus two quality quarterbacks who were traded during their rookie contracts (Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett) and two solid contributors whom the team let walk in free agency (Malcom Brown and Damien Harris).

2014
DT Dominique Easley
QB Jimmy Garoppolo

2015
DT Malcom Brown
S Jordan Richards
DE Geneo Grissom

2016
CB Cyrus Jones
G Joe Thuney
QB Jacoby Brissett
DT Vincent Valentine

2017
DE Derek Rivers
OT Antonio Garcia

2018
OT Isaiah Wynn
RB Sony Michel
CB Duke Dawson

2019
WR N’Keal Harry
CB Joejuan Williams
DE Chase Winovich
RB Damien Harris
OT Yodny Cajuste

The best way to build a sustainable contender is through the draft, and it’s no coincidence that these high-profile misses coincided with New England’s descent from powerhouse to also-ran.

Over the five previous drafts (2009-13), the Patriots picked 24 players in the first three rounds and re-signed six of them: Harmon, Dont’a Hightower, Nate Solder, Devin McCourty, Rob Gronkowski and Sebastian Vollmer, all of whom went on to win multiple Super Bowls. They also took Patrick Chung (second round, 2009) and Jamie Collins (second, ’13), who both left and then returned.

Re-signing Dugger or Uche — second-round picks in 2020 — would break this drought. The former seems like the more likely of the two to stick around, as he’s a better scheme fit and has a much larger role in the Patriots’ defense.

Head coach Bill Belichick recently said he “absolutely” wants Dugger to remain with the team for the foreseeable future. Uche has not spoken with reporters since the trade deadline, but history suggests another team will be willing to pay him more than the Patriots if he hits the open market.

The Patriots also have another Day 2 pick from 2020 who quietly is enjoying a career year: third-round linebacker Anfernee Jennings, who’s impressed as a run defender after beginning the season as a healthy scratch.

Ownenu is in a different category as a sixth-round pick. The Patriots have locked up some of their later-round selections in recent years, but even those have been rare.

The sole member of New England’s 10-player 2019 draft class to land a second contract was punter Jake Bailey (fifth round), and he was cut less than a year later. Linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley (fifth) was the only one of their nine 2018 draftees to re-sign. The others over the last decade: Deatrich Wise (fourth, 2017), Shaq Mason (fourth, 2015), Joe Cardona (fifth, 2015) and James White (fourth, 2014).

Building up a more talented roster needs to be a priority for the Patriots this offseason. Whether their plan to do so involves keeping their homegrown draft hits remains to be seen.