How Titans, Giants Upsets Helped Patriots’ NFL Draft Outlook

Both of this week’s dramatic “Monday Night Football” games broke the Patriots’ way.

Upset victories by the New York Giants and Tennessee Titans to close out Week 14 helped New England from a draft positioning perspective. Both teams now sit at 5-8 on the season, two games clear of the 3-10 Patriots.

Rookie quarterback Tommy DeVito drove the Giants 57 yards for a last-second, game-winning field goal to knock off the Green Bay Packers 24-22 at MetLife Stadium. Minutes later, the Titans stopped the Miami Dolphins on fourth down to win a 28-27 stunner at Hard Rock Stadium.

New York and Tennessee both committed ghastly fourth-quarter turnovers and trailed late, with the Titans erasing a 14-point deficit in the final three minutes to pull off a road victory as 13.5-point underdogs.

Combine those results with Sunday’s unexpected W’s by the New York Jets and Chicago Bears, both of whom also entered the weekend with four wins, and this was a banner weekend for the Patriots, who defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers 21-18 last Thursday night to snap a five-game losing streak.

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Here’s a look at the updated NFL draft order with four weeks remaining, via Tankathon:

1. Chicago Bears (via 1-12 Carolina Panthers; .520 strength of schedule)
2. New England Patriots (3-10; .525 SOS)
3. Arizona Cardinals (3-10; .557 SOS)
4. Washington Commanders (4-9; .529 SOS)
5. Chicago Bears (5-8; .466 SOS)
6. Las Vegas Raiders (5-8; .498 SOS)
7. New York Jets (5-8; .511 SOS)
8. New York Giants (5-8; .516 SOS)
9. Tennessee Titans (4-8; .520 SOS)
10. Los Angeles Chargers (5-8; .525 SOS)

The No. 1 overall pick almost certainly will be out of the Patriots’ reach, but wins by the Giants, Titans, Bears and Jets boosted their already-strong odds of landing a top-three selection. If they win one or zero of their final four games, they’re guaranteed to pick no lower than fourth.

New England also owns a substantial strength-of-schedule edge over Arizona, meaning it likely would receive the higher pick if both teams finished with identical records. That might not be the case with 4-9 Washington, so the Commanders’ results will be worth monitoring as the season winds down.

Remember: Strength of schedule, not head-to-head, is the first draft-order tiebreaker, with the team with the lower SOS picking first.

Here are the remaining schedules for the Patriots, Cardinals and Commanders:

Patriots: vs. Kansas City, at Denver, at Buffalo, vs. Jets

Cardinals: vs. San Francisco, at Chicago, at Philadelphia, vs. Seattle

Commanders: at Los Angeles Rams, at Jets, vs. San Francisco, vs. Dallas

The Patriots will host Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs this Sunday at Gillette Stadium. Originally scheduled for next Monday night, the game will kick off at 1 p.m. ET after being flexed out of primetime.