even the most promising and precocious rookie runners typically end up
in time shares, as most NFL coaches loath to give rookies blitz pickup
responsibility.
Here are the rookies by position in the order they are being
selected, on average, in hundreds of summer drafts being conducted by
our friends at MockDraftCentral.com.
Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford,
Lions (213th overall): He?s impressed his coaches to the point where
Lions writers seem convinced he?s got the lead in the battle for the
starting job over Daunte Culpepper. While wide receiver Calvin Johnson is the LeBron James
of the NFL, Stafford is a candidate to get benched in any game he
starts. Keeper league players, however, can take a flyer at about that
spot.
Mark Sanchez, Jets (200th overall): He?s more
polished than Stafford and more NFL-ready. But there?s about a 10
percent chance that any rookie signal caller makes it to the extent Matt Ryan
did last year. And Ryan was just another guy, fantasy wise ? a decent
backup quarterback. That?s the ceiling if you draft Sanchez. So why
bother?
Running Backs
Knowshon Moreno, Broncos (50th overall): This is not a Mike Shanahan, running back-friendly offense. This is the Patriots? system now, with Josh McDaniels at the helm. And New England has had one back (Corey Dillon) that?s been fantasy championshipcaliber during the Bill Belichick
era. Moreno does not have game-breaking speed or great size. Like the
Patriots, the Broncos seem set to use a lot of runners. Moreno is just
an OK No. 3 running back to start the year.
Donald Brown, Colts (86th overall): The Colts break in their rookie RBs slowly. Joseph Addai was given just 39 more carries than Dominic Rhodes
in Addai?s rookie year. And Addai is a better player than Rhodes, so
you have to figure that Brown comes out on the short end of this new
committee. Barring an injury, he?s strictly a backup to your backup ? a
No. 4 back. There are guys with clearer paths to playing time being
taken rounds later.
LeSean McCoy, Eagles (106th overall): He?s worth owning only if Brian Westbrook
gets hurt. Westbrook is always on the injury report, but has missed
four games in the last three years. If Westbrook is healthy after four
weeks, half of McCoy?s owners will cut him. So be patient and grab him
as a free agent.
Shonn Greene, Jets (161st overall): I like him in keeper leagues or if Thomas Jones
gets indignant about his contract again. But short of that, there?s not
much for him to do in 2009. Jones isn?t great on the goal line (six
TD?s in 33 attempts the last two years), but his 15 TDs? last year
probably buys him that job to start.
Wide Receivers
Michael Crabtree, 49ers (97th overall): He?s just
under 6-foot-2 and didn?t run in the combine due to a foot injury, so
no one really know how fast he is. The Niners have major questions at
quarterback, no more Mike Martz to orchestrate the passing attack and a head coach (Mike Singletary) who wants a run-first offense. Having Crabtree as even my No. 4 fantasy wideout doesn?t excite me.
Jeremy Maclin, Eagles (112th overall): The timed
speed isn?t top-notch, but he sure looked like a game-breaker at
Missouri. The Eagles don?t have a No. 1 receiver and Maclin has better
size than DeSean Jackson and thus may be a bigger factor in the red zone. I always like the setup for the passing game under Andy Reid, and would be happy to land Maclin at 112. The odds are against whoever you?re going to get there, anyway.
Percy Harvin, Vikings (127th overall): He?s compared to the Panthers? Steve Smith,
who was worth owning only after his second year ? another cautionary
tale for rookie receivers. Harvin will be drafted at least a round or
two higher than this when Brett Favre?s signing is
official. But he?s not in my draft plans even at 127, given his injury
history and the track record of Florida receivers in the NFL.
Hakeem Nicks, Giants (137th overall): This one is a
value pick. Why can?t Nicks be the No. 1 Giant receiver by November 1?
That?s damning with faint praise, I guess. But no rookie receiver has a
better set-up than Nicks.
Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders (191st overall): The market has no respect for Al Davis?s draft acumen. Fellow rookie Brian Robiskie
(Browns) is being selected higher (186th) in drafts than Bey ? the
first receiver taken in the real draft in April. Note also that
fourth-rounder Louis Murphy has been, by far, the most impressive rookie wide receiver in Raider mini-camps.
Tight End
Brandon Pettigrew, Lions (201st
overall): His draft scouting report says he?s a better blocker than
receiver, which automatically gets you eliminated from fantasy
consideration. His 40-yard-dash time of 4.83 at the combine makes him
very borderline in being able to threaten the safety very quickly down
seams. Tight ends who cannot do this are off the field on third downs
or relegated to pass protection.
