Upgrade
Rajai Davis, OF, Athletics: He's taken over the center-field gig, he's been pushed up in the order, he's spiked his walk rate and he's being allowed to run whenever he wants (Bob Geren has loosened the reigns on everyone in Oakland this year). There's nothing in Davis's profile that suggests he can keep his average anywhere near the current .291, but he's still one of the most affordable speed sources in the AL.
Gordon Beckham, 3B, White Sox: Chicago didn't want to rush its top pick from 2008, but Beckham has been a quick study, handling a position change and a quick ascent up the ladder without any difficulty. Beckham was promoted to the No. 2 slot in the order three weeks back and all he's done since is hit frozen rope after frozen rope (.314/.383/.510). He's going to be a star in short order.
Randy Ruiz, 1B/DH, Blue Jays: Generally, you don't want to get too excited about a 31-year-old who's tearing up the minors, but Ruiz's stats at Triple-A (.320, 25 homers, 106 RBIs) demand our respect, not to mention the two homers he clubbed at Yankee Stadium this week. Perhaps we've got another Nelson Cruz/Garrett Jones late-bloomer case on our hands. The Jays have a spot for Ruiz in their everyday lineup after dumping the Alex Rios contract.
No Change
Kendry Morales, 1B, Angels: It's a joke that he had to sit behind Casey Kotchman all those years, but it's also hard to trust Morales' 25 homers — he didn't show this much power in the minors and he's been helped by an obscene (for him) 18 percent HR/FB rate. Now's the time to quietly shop his power spike before the HR/FB rate normalizes.
Bobby Jenks, RP, White Sox: He's finally over his appendicitis, and while his slider looked flat against the Mariners Tuesday, there was nothing wrong with Jenks' fastball. Ozzie Guillen trusts Jenks to "get the saves," and possession of the job is the first thing we look for when save-chasing — even before ability, in some instances. High-priced closers don't want you to know this, but it really isn't all that difficult to get the final three outs in the ninth, especially when you're working with a multiple-run lead.
Fausto Carmona, SP, Indians: He's got a pretty ERA since rejoining the Indians but it's been a Houdini act all the way (nine walks against five strikeouts over his first 16 innings). Carmona's getting enough sink to keep the ball on the ground and in the park more often than not, but that K/BB tax will be collected soon enough.
Downgrade
Clay Buchholz, SP, Red Sox: For all the sunshine thrown his way in the last few years, we're still talking about a young pitcher who's got a 6.39 ERA and 57 walks over his last 101.1 major league innings. Perhaps the Sox had a plan when they left Buchholz in Triple-A for so long this year, thinking that his trade value might be highest while he was blowing away overmatched hitters (as opposed to what we see now — just another young buzz player who's struggling in the Show). Sometimes, the worst thing you can do to your own prospects is expose them for all the world to see. Not that Buchholz can't be a capable starter, if not a star, in time — but it's unlikely to happen over the last quarter of the year.
B.J. Upton, OF, Rays: He was dropped to the No. 9 slot in the order on Sunday (that's what a .310 OBP will do for you) and he wasn't even in Wednesday's lineup. Don't look for the Rays to flip-flop this move anytime soon; Jason Bartlett is a zesty 9-for-18 since the switch and he gets on base around 40 percent of the time. (What took you so long, Joe Maddon?) More disconcerting here is the way Upton took the news; he called the demotion "almost like a kick in the face" and he's been prone to emotional outbursts in the past.
John Smoltz, SP, Free Agent: A lot of pundits want to give Smoltz a pass for his tidy strikeout/walk ratio (33 K, 9 BB), but it's hard to trust a starter in the rugged AL East when he can't get left-handers out (.444 average, six homers). Smoltz still looks like an intriguing possibility for a NL club that needs a specialist in the bullpen (his velocity remains intact and his slider can get righties out), but it would be a mistake for any contending club to try him as a starter.
