Let's look at the key numbers that impact fantasy football performance. Of course, they also shape reality football performance, too. So all NFL fans take heed.
Which defenses are most stout and thus the toughest matchup for opposing offenses? The complete rankings can be found here. But here are the highlights:
The Broncos are lapping the field, but they had trouble with the Chargers until Norv Turner began emphasizing LaDanian Tomlinson like it's 2005 all over again. They are blitzing very well, overwhelming Rivers in the second half with Tomlinson no longer able to handle linebackers blitz pickup.
So respect the Broncos, but do not fear them — yet. The Redskins are the other shocker at the top of the defensive rankings (second overall). They're followed by the Saints, Steelers and Vikings. The Saints really look like an overall powerhouse right now, but how many teams that look this way after six games ever actually win the Super Bowl? A small fraction, I'll wager.
The easy marks are the Chargers, Rams, Bucs, Lions, Browns, Titans and Jaguars.
If you're choosing between running backs who are close in value, go with ones playing the Bills, Raiders, Browns, Panthers, Chargers, Texans, Giants, Chiefs and Bucs — those teams are all poor in both yards allowed per rush and rushing TDs allowed per game.
I wouldn't be scared off by the Patriots being the toughest team to score rushing TDs against, as they are just 26th in yards allowed per rush.
Against the pass, the easiest marks are the Bucs, Lions, Titans, Jaguars, Chargers, Chiefs, Ravens and Cardinals. No, the Ravens are not a misprint. Also, the Bengals are getting props for shutting down No. 1 receivers, but they didn't shut down Andre Johnson and now are 21st and 19th in YPA allowed and TD passes allowed, respectively.
Run defenses to avoid: Cardinals, Broncos, Eagles, Vikings, Steelers, Packers, Ravens and Jaguars.
Best pass defenses: Colts (No. 1 in both YPA and TD Passes allowed per game), Broncos, Redskins, Jets and Bills.
Now let's use individual stats to make some recommendations:
Buy
Tackle-Breaking Tight Ends: Dallas Clark is third in the NFL in yards after catch (YAC), Owen Daniels is 11th and Heath Miller is 12th.
Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers: I want the tight end who leads the league in targets-per-game, in the company of the best receivers.
All Vikings receivers: Bernard Berrian is second behind Heath Miller with seven red zone catches. Sidney Rice is a freak. Percy Harvin (shoulder) is a big playmaker. And Brett Favre …
Brett Favre, QB, Vikings: He's playing as well as ever. How about this stat — 23-for-26 in the red zone, only an 88.5 percent completion percentage.
Lower-ranked running backs who run great on first-and-10: The stat is average per rush on first-and-10. The following all just need an injury to get the carries necessary for fantasy relevance: Correll Buckhalter (7.6), Tashard Choice (6.3), Ricky Williams (6.1) and Michael Bush (5.2). Bush has 19 first-and-10 carries, the other guys each have 26 or 27.
Hold
Steve Smith, WR, Panthers: I don't know what he's going to do. The QB, Jake Delhomme, scares me. But you can't sell now for 50 cents on the dollar, if you're lucky. He does have 46 targets, not as many as the other Steve Smith (54), but tied for 14th (with another Giant, Mario Manningham).
Chargers Passing Game: OK, Norv Turner is a huge problem. There is no Charger in the top 20 in red zone targets. They're running 58 percent of the time in the red zone, which makes zero sense considering they are last in the NFL in rushing yards per carry.
Sell
Mohamed Massaquoi, WR, Browns: I'd say "all Browns receivers," but only Massaquoi has any currency. Alas, he's fourth in the league in drops. That puts him just behind teammate Robert Royal (the league leader with five) and just ahead of another teammate, Jerome Harrison (three).
Eddie Royal, WR, Broncos: The two return TDs are the perfect cover to get full value. Royal is second behind the Panthers' Smith in passes not caught — 23. He has 41 targets and 148 receiving yards — a putrid 3.6 yard per target (a good number is about 9.0). He's looking like Michael Clayton of the Bucs when Clayton disappeared his sophomore year.
