Environment is the major key to fantasy football production. These rankings, updated weekly throughout the season, assess the foundation upon which fantasy football statistics rise (or fall).
NFL offenses are ranked one through 32 in the following categories: red zone trips per game, third-down conversion percentage, yards per rush attempt, yards per pass attempt, sack percentage allowed, rushing touchdowns per game and passing touchdowns per game.
You want to see the touchdowns, I know, but those must be built on a solid foundation of good performance in the sampling of these other stats. Also use these rankings to target weak offenses when selecting a fantasy defense for the coming week.
| Rank | Team | Red Zone Pos. | Third Down % | YPR | YPA | Sack % | TD-Run | TD-Pass | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Orleans (4-0) | 1 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 30 |
| 2 | New York Giants (5-0) | 2 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 4 | 38 |
| 3 | Baltimore (3-2) | 5 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 48 |
| 4 | Indianapolis (5-0) | 7 | 2 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 49 |
| 5 | Atlanta (3-1) | 6 | 9 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 64 |
| 6 | Philadelphia (3-1) | 13 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 13 | 9 | 2 | 71 |
| 7 | Minnesota (5-0) | 10 | 3 | 17 | 12 | 21 | 1 | 8 | 72 |
| 8 | Dallas (3-2) | 13 | 19 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 5 | 19 | 78 |
| 9 | Miami (2-3) | 10 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 12 | 1 | 27 | 79 |
| 9 | Pittsburgh (3-2) | 12 | 6 | 18 | 3 | 23 | 9 | 8 | 79 |
| 11 | New England (3-2) | 4 | 10 | 25 | 18 | 4 | 14 | 19 | 94 |
| 12 | San Diego (2-2) | 3 | 11 | 32 | 4 | 19 | 19 | 13 | 101 |
| 13 | Green Bay (2-2) | 13 | 14 | 13 | 9 | 32 | 9 | 13 | 103 |
| 14 | Jacksonville (2-3) | 13 | 18 | 6 | 17 | 20 | 7 | 23 | 104 |
| 15 | Chicago (3-1) | 9 | 21 | 21 | 16 | 15 | 19 | 4 | 105 |
| 16 | Denver (5-0) | 25 | 16 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 22 | 16 | 109 |
| 16 | Houston (2-3) | 7 | 25 | 31 | 8 | 9 | 25 | 4 | 109 |
| 18 | Cincinnati (4-1) | 18 | 17 | 10 | 20 | 18 | 14 | 16 | 113 |
| 18 | Seattle (2-3) | 13 | 13 | 23 | 21 | 14 | 25 | 4 | 113 |
| 20 | Tennessee (0-5) | 31 | 15 | 2 | 27 | 5 | 14 | 23 | 117 |
| 21 | New York Jets (3-2) | 18 | 20 | 16 | 19 | 22 | 7 | 23 | 125 |
| 22 | Detroit (1-4) | 18 | 7 | 24 | 24 | 27 | 8 | 27 | 136 |
| 23 | Tampa Bay (0-5) | 23 | 26 | 14 | 30 | 8 | 25 | 16 | 142 |
| 24 | Arizona (2-2) | 22 | 29 | 30 | 15 | 10 | 24 | 13 | 143 |
| 25 | Washington (2-3) | 18 | 21 | 22 | 13 | 28 | 25 | 19 | 146 |
| 26 | Buffalo (1-4) | 25 | 28 | 7 | 22 | 24 | 30 | 19 | 155 |
| 27 | St. Louis (0-5) | 28 | 21 | 11 | 28 | 17 | 20 | 37 | 162 |
| 28 | San Francisco (3-2) | 28 | 27 | 15 | 26 | 30 | 14 | 23 | 163 |
| 29 | Carolina (1-3) | 24 | 24 | 20 | 25 | 26 | 19 | 30 | 168 |
| 30 | Kansas City (0-5) | 25 | 32 | 27 | 29 | 29 | 30 | 8 | 180 |
| 31 | Cleveland (1-4) | 28 | 30 | 19 | 31 | 25 | 29 | 31 | 193 |
| 32 | Oakland (1-4) | 32 | 31 | 29 | 32 | 31 | 22 | 32 | 209 |
Executive Summary (Yes, you're an executive. You own a football team!)
Games played by each team is not a factor in the rankings, but obviously impacts sample size.
I did this for defense, too, this week, to test whether offense or defense correlates better to winning. Top 10 offensive teams are 34-11. Top 10 defensive teams, measured the same way, are 42-10 (three-way tie for ninth place in the defensive ranks, thus, more games). So, maybe it's not an offensive game. The defensive teams are doing quite well.
Alas, there's a lot of overlap. Teams in the top 10 in both offense and defense: Saints, Giants, Vikings, Steelers, Colts, Ravens and Eagles. We hear a lot of talk about how weak the NFL teams are at the bottom. But the zero-sum aspect of this, I guess, is that there are lots of very strong teams at the top, too.
If you forced me to choose one stat and use only it to predict fantasy relevance going forward, it would be red zone possessions per game. So the Texans (7th), Bears (9th) and Seahawks (13th) might be better than their overall rankings suggest. On the other hand, skepticism is still reasonable when assessing the Broncos (25th) prospectively.
The Jaguars remain the one team I can't get a good read on, no matter how many numbers I see.