The team that passes most efficiently (yards per attempt) wins more than three quarters of NFL games. Watching so many young quarterbacks this year, I?ve thought more than ever before about unforced errors in the passing game — poor throws and drops.
So after our weekly rundown of the key offensive and defensive rankings for fantasy matchup purposes, let?s highlight this new unforced-error category in our player recommendations.
Last week, I came up with this stat when discussing Donovan McNabb. However, I set it as a percentage of incompletions, which potentially unjustly punishes quarterbacks who throw incompletions a relatively low percentage of the time.
The new way — calculating the unforced errors as a percentage of attempts — better measures the difference between a quarterback's current level of productivity and his expected level of productivity if his rate of unforced errors was closer to league average. It is especially useful for trying to assess how rookie quarterbacks will perform if and when they clean up their throwing and receive better support from their receivers (less drops).
First, though, let?s highlight our offensive and defensive power rankings. There?s no dominant defense right now. Pittsburgh grades out best but is missing Troy Polamalu (knee) and sits at a dreadful 23rd in third-down percentage allowed.
The Giants should be scoring more rushing touchdowns — and more touchdowns in general — given that they are fourth in red-zone possessions. Running better is the key to scoring as you get closer to the opposing goal line.
This week, the strongest red-zone offense (Saints, with 4.9 possessions per game) faces the toughest red-zone defense (the Patriots, allowing just 2.0 possessions per game). Generally, offense beats defense in these situations, meaning final game totals tend to be closer to the offense?s average than the defense?s.
The best team with the worst passing defense is the Vikings — just 18th in YPA allowed (sack adjusted). This is a red flag for those who assume they are a Super Bowl favorite.
Instead of rounding up defenses based on season totals, let?s look only at the last three weeks.
Toughest pass defenses (0.7 passing touchdowns or less allowed per game during this span): Raiders, Cowboys, Bengals, Texans, Niners, Ravens, Steelers and Bills.
Easiest pass defenses (two touchdown passes or more allowed per game): Seahawks, Giants, Bears, Packers, Broncos, Patriots, Falcons, Bucs, Lions and Titans.
Stingiest rushing defenses (0.3 rushing touchdowns or less allowed per game): Chargers, Packers, Steelers, Titans, Jaguars, Bengals, Cowboys and Vikings.
Softest run defenses (1.7 rushing touchdowns or more allowed per game): Bills, Bucs, Raiders, Jets, Niners, Falcons, Panthers and Giants.
Now let?s use that quarterback ?unforced error? data to make some recommendations on quarterbacks and their teams? overall passing games.
Buy
Tom Brady, Patriots: He?s a veteran and thus shouldn?t get better than his No. 26 ranking (21 percent unforced errors). But he?s also not fully recovered from his major knee surgery and I doubt New England will continue to be among the league leaders in dropped passes (23).
Mark Sanchez, Jets: You?d expect next year that he cuts that rate of unforced errors from 24.9 percent to the league average of about 19 percent. That?s a couple more plays per game in a league where games are often decided by less. This will get him over 7.0 YPA and thus very likely also over 20 touchdown passes.
Matthew Stafford, Lions: Like Sanchez, his YPA would be a lot better without all the ?oops? — 28.2 percent of attempts (33rd on our full-season list).
Hold
Kurt Warner, Cardinals: The NFL leader with unforced errors on just 13.4 percent of attempts. Yes, there?s nowhere to go but down. But Warner (concussion) has been operating at peak efficiency now for a long while.
Chad Henne, Dolphins: He should get better (23 percent unforced errors), but as a second-year pro, probably not as dramatically as Sanchez and Stafford. Also, how committed is Miami to a conventional passing game?
Jay Cutler, Bears: He?s not leaving nearly as much on the field as you?d think by watching just Sunday night?s game — 16.4 percent unforced errors is top 10.
Sell
Tony Romo, Cowboys: He?s struggling on some easy throws and his receivers are not helping him — 23.3 percent drops plus poor throws.
JaMarcus Russell, Raiders: The league?s worst — 35.1 percent of attempts are unforced errors. He would have progressed far past this if he ever was going to be any good.
Alex Smith, Niners: Not doing much and not leaving much on the field — 14.2 percent unforced errors is second best.
Vince Young, Titans: The Titans have dropped just one pass for him (15 for Kerry Collins). Like Smith, this is as good as it?s going to get and it's still not good enough.
