Last year, whoever was lucky enough to snap up Oakland's Andrew Bailey ended up with 26 saves and a 1.84 ERA out of the AL Rookie of the Year.
While Bailey started the year in the bigs with the Athletics, it was a midseason call-up that won NL Rookie of the Year, Chris Coghlan of the Florida Marlins.
Below is a list of rookies expected to make an impact in 2010. Also listed are some prospects who will open the season in the minor leagues but are likely make their marks in the majors before all is said and done. Grabbing one of these under-the-radar players might just make all the difference.
Rookies
Wade Davis is opening the year as the Tampa Bay Rays' fifth starter. In a brief stint in the majors in 2009, Davis showed the strikeout ability that has made him a top prospect the last few years. While Tampa's rotation lacks a bona fide ace, it's deep with quality pitchers — Davis included. Most projections have him winning about 10 games with a 4.50-range ERA. You can do much worse in the later rounds of the draft.
In August, the Milwaukee Brewers sent incumbent shortstop J.J. Hardy to Triple-A to make room for Alcides Escobar, who still retains rookie eligibility. In 125 at-bats, Escobar hit .304 while swiping four bags. His value lies in batting average, stolen bases and defense (although the latter rarely matters in fantasy). Projection systems have a consensus of a .290 batting average with 30 stolen bases for 2010. Such production would put him in the middle of the pack in shortstop rankings.
Jason Heyward is this season's requisite wunderkind, much like Matt Wieters was last year. The difference is that Heyward has made the Braves roster from the get-go and should provide some excellent production out of right field. He should crack double-digit home runs without breaking a sweat and hit in the meat of the order. Not too shabby for a 20-year-old.
The Orioles have a nice one-two pitching tandem emerging in Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman. Both are rookies, but the former is tabbed to begin the season with Baltimore. Matusz skyrocketed through the minors in 2009, his first professional season, to reach the bigs. Slated for a full complement of starts, he'll likely find the going tough in the AL East. Wins will also be difficult to come by for a team not expected to see .500, but Matusz should put up numbers similar to Wade Davis and will go later in the draft by virtue of being on a worse team.
The Tigers let second baseman Placido Polanco walk as a free agent because they had Scott Sizemore ready. Sizemore's never been labeled a top prospect, but he's a steady hand at a fantasy position that's strong at the top and nonexistent at the bottom. He figures to have some growing pains as a rookie, but he will be worth more at his draft slot than better-known names such as Luis Castillo or Akinori Iwamura.
Drew Stubbs is another name who deposed a starter last August, Willy Taveras of the Cincinnati Reds. Stubbs surprised many with his speed and quick adjustment to the major leagues, displaying strong plate discipline. He's been handed the starting center-field job to begin 2010, and he is a threat to swipe 50 bags. The only question is if he will get on base enough as he's never been one to hit for a high average. He'll need that strong plate discipline to be even stronger, but even if he settles in around 30 stolen bases, there's value in that.
Prospects
Madison Bumgarner may have lost the No. 5 starter's job in San Francisco to Todd Wellemeyer, but the 20-year-old lefty figures to introduce himself to the masses before the year's out. His career ERA over two years in the minors is a minuscule 1.65, although he clearly needs more work after walking seven, whiffing none and coughing up five runs in seven spring-training innings. He'll get his work in at Triple-A and be ready if Wellemeyer fails or injuries strike.
Oakland's offense figures to be one of the worst in the game this season. Never fear, as Chris Carter's lumber will bring all the boys to the yard once the Athletics deem him ready. Not to be confused with the former Boston and current Mets outfielder of the same name, this Carter hit 28 taters between Double- and Triple-A in 2009 and is on the fast track to being the next 40-home run star.
The Cleveland Indians acquired Lou Marson, a young catcher, in 2009's deadline trade of Cliff Lee to Philadelphia. Despite the acquisition of Marson, his time as the starting catcher figures to be brief with 23-year-old Carlos Santana nearly ready to introduce himself to Indians fans. Santana is a Victor Martinez clone, except he's better defensively behind the dish.
All the attention in Washington is focused on top draft pick Stephen Strasburg, and for good reason. Strasburg won't need much seasoning in the minors, and he will immediately become the Nationals' best pitcher once he's called up. However, he's far from a sleeper in fantasy. Another Washington prospect, though, Drew Storen, is likely to be overlooked, although Storen has a chance to beat Strasburg to the bigs. He's Washington's closer of the future and could serve in a Neftali Feliz role (circa 2009) once he receives the call.
When the Toronto Blue Jays shipped Roy Halladay to Philadelphia, they received, among others, a 6-foot-6 giant in Michael Taylor. Taylor was then swapped to Oakland for Brett Wallace. While Taylor joins a crowded Oakland outfield, his talent, especially at the plate, will allow him to bust through at some point. Taylor can affect the game on both sides of the ball and should pair with Carter for a dangerous 3-4 lineup duo in the years to come.
As for Brett Wallace, his path to the majors is clearer in Toronto, although he still figures to open the season in the minors. Wallace has a high ceiling with the bat — he has a shot to be a perennial .330 hitter — and should knock enough out of the park to be one of the league's best first basemen. He's making the conversion from third because his defense is a liability. Toronto is rebuilding and will give Wallace plenty of time once it finds a suitor for Lyle Overbay.
Don't make the mistake of overlooking rookies on draft day. As relative unknowns, they'll provide more bang for their buck than the average veteran.
