MLB Playoff Odds: Why Red Sox Are Near-Lock For Postseason Baseball In 2021
It's unlikely anyone in Boston is taking anything for granted, though
The Red Sox sit just two games ahead of the New York Yankees and three clear of the Toronto Blue Jays with a week to play, but it would be a colossal meltdown for Boston to miss out on postseason play.
At least according to the math.
The Sox and Yankees open a crucial three-game set Friday night at Fenway Park, a series that means a whole heckuva lot more for the visitors than the home team. Boston's seven-game winning streak has gone a long way in solidifying its hold on the top wild-card spot in the American League.
The Red Sox have nine games remaining, starting with Friday night's potential wild-card game preview pitting Nathan Eovaldi against Gerrit Cole. The math says it would take a lot for the Sox to fall out of one of those top two spots.
Fangraphs currently has the Red Sox with a 97.6% chance to make the MLB playoffs (with less than 1% chance of catching Tampa Bay for the division title). Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projection tool projects the Sox to finish the season with a 93-69 record, giving Alex Cora's team a 94.1% chance to reach the postseason.
Despite the Blue Jays' best efforts, the most likely scenario is the Red Sox host the Yankees in the AL wild-card game on Oct. 5. BP is more bullish on the Bronx Bombers, giving the Yankees a 68% chance to make the playoffs, while Fangraphs has them just below 57%.
The very important and very obvious caveat here: These numbers can and will change on a regular basis, especially if, say, the Yankees come into Boston and win all three this weekend. Then again, a Red Sox sweep might be the premature death knell for a New York club many expected to contend for a World Series.
At this point, every game is massive for the Yankees (and Blue Jays), but it's even more so for New York. After the three-game set on Jersey Street, the Yankees head north to Toronto -- where the Rogers Centre capacity is being increased -- to do battle with the Blue Jays. So while the numbers clearly favor the Yankees, at this point, a disastrous showing against the two teams with which they're fighting in the playoff race would sink Aaron Boone's ship.
That three-game series in Toronto is also a big reason why the Red Sox's MLB playoff odds are so good despite nine games to play. The Yankees and Blue Jays beating up on each other make it tough for both teams to gain ground, and the Red Sox just need to beat out one to make the playoffs.
Of course, crazier things have happened, so the Red Sox can't and shouldn't take anything for granted. A chance to host that one-game wild-card extravaganza should be enough motivation to keep the pedal to the metal until things are officially official.
