NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday, November 23: Shooter's Paradise In Portland

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When I said that the New Orleans Pelicans wouldn’t get the best of me, I meant it. We successfully faded them at home on Monday against a streaking Timberwolves team. Now, we’re on a two-game winning streak of our own in what’s already been a profitable NBA season. With only four games on the schedule for Tuesday, I contemplated bypassing on the card altogether. However, I see a total that looks completely undervalued based on the injury report.

Let’s take a look at the matchup.

Denver Nuggets vs. Portland Trail Blazers, Moneyline, Total, and Odds

Moneyline: Nuggets +215 | Trail Blazers -260

Spread: Nuggets +6.5 (-108) | Trail Blazers -6.5 (-110)

Total: 213.5 (-110)

NBA Championship Odds: Nuggets +2100 | Trail Blazers +8000

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Denver Nuggets vs. Portland Trail Blazers, News, Analysis, and Picks

The Denver Nuggets are in a bad stretch at the moment with losses in each of their past four games. Injuries could be to blame as Michael Porter Jr. is out indefinitely with a back injury, and Nah’Shon “Bones” Hyland is also set to miss Tuesday’s game with an ankle problem. And if that’s not bad enough, the reigning MVP, Nikola Jokic, is questionable and will be a game-time decision.

However, there’s a misconception that games are likely to be low-scoring if star players are not on the court, but that’s a very flawed way to look at things, particularly when the league in question is the NBA. The other guys on the bench are professionals, and they want to impress the coaching staff and make their case for more playing time.

The key to this game is really what we’ll get out of Portland. The Trail Blazers are sixth in the league with 38.9 three-point attempts per game. They’re also ranked fifth with 13.9 three-point field goals per game. When Portland’s having one of those games where they catch fire from long range, it puts a ton of pressure on opposing teams to try to keep pace.

Conversely, as much as we praise the Trail Blazers for their perimeter shooting, they also deserve some criticism for how they’ve defended against the three-point shot. Portland’s ranked 27th in allowing opponents 13.8 three-pointers per game. That’s just one element that could add to this game going over. Here are four others:

  • The total is 5-0 to the over when Denver’s opponent scored at least 100 points in their previous outing.
  • The over is on a 6-0 run when Portland’s playing on two days’ rest.
  • The total is 7-1 to the over in the past eight head-to-head meetings between the Nuggets and Trail Blazers.
  • The total is 8-3 to the over in the past 11 head-to-head meetings in Portland.

This current number seems a bit short, and I think there’s sufficient value in playing this total over 213.5.

Pick: Over 213.5

All NBA game predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid
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