Our winning streak ended on Tuesday when a 64-point fourth-quarter ruined our chances of cashing another under ticket. With that streak now over, it’s time to start a new one. I’ve got my sights set on fading a team that looks overvalued from a power rating perspective.
Let’s take a look at the matchup.
Detroit Pistons vs. Houston Rockets, Moneyline, Total, and Odds
Moneyline: Pistons +124 | Rockets -146
Spread: Rockets -3
NBA Championship Odds: Pistons +25000| Rockets +25000
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Detroit Pistons vs. Houston Rockets, News, Analysis, and Picks
Who are the Houston Rockets to be laying three points as a favorite? After all, they’ve managed to win just one game on the season. The Pistons only have one win to show for their efforts, but they’re not the team that’s installed as the favorite in this spot. Even if you give Houston 1-1.5 points for being the home team, it would still be short of where this number’s sitting at the moment.
The Rockets come into this game on an eight-game losing streak. They’ll have two days of rest after recently playing on Sunday against the Warriors. That’s not to be outdone by the Pistons, who last played an NBA game this past Friday. I’m looking for Detroit to have the added motivation given their rest advantage heading into this game. Their last opponent was the Brooklyn Nets, and they narrowly lost the game by a score of 96-90. That’s certainly something they can build off. Given where both teams are positioned in the standings, I think you pretty much throw out all the stats for this one.
In terms of aside in the matchup, Detroit backers should be pleased to know that the Pistons are on a 6-0 ATS run on the highway in Houston. Moreover, Detroit’s also 7-1 ATS in their past eight meetings. This point spread is a bit inflated mainly because of some of the raw efficiency numbers. However, my projections make Houston no more than a half-point favorite on a neutral court. Let’s also not act like Houston is gaining a massive advantage on their home court, either. Per ESPN.com, the Rockets are 17th in attendance, with under 16,000 paying customers per game. Houston’s poor attendance further illuminates why this point spread is currently overvalued.
I only want the dog in this spot, so I’ll pocket the three points and back the Pistons to keep this one closer than the experts think.
Pick: Rockets +3