Cleveland Cavaliers vs Sacramento Kings Preview: Cavs a Solid Bet to Dethrone Kings

These two teams first met back on December 11th, with the Cavaliers rolling to a 117-103 victory. Cleveland were 6.5 point home favorites in that contest and are once again favored tonight (-5) – this time on the road. Both clubs are on the second half of a back-to-back.

Currently, on game three of a six-game road trip, the Cavs look to get back in the win column after falling to the Golden State Warriors last night 96-82. The points were a season-low for J.B. Bickerstaff’s group, while the loss was their fourth in the past six games.

Luckily for Cleveland, offense should be much easier to come by tonight, with the Kings ranking as one of the worst defensive teams in basketball – 113.7 points allowed per game (28th). The Cavs have also been solid as road favorites this season, posting a mark of 3-1 against the spread, while Sacramento is 6-8 as home underdogs.

Following a 103-88 road defeat to the Portland Trail Blazers, the Kings return home hoping to avoid a fifth straight loss. The decision to fire former head coach Luke Walton has not had its desired effect as Sacramento is just 11-17 under interim head coach Alvin Gentry.

Gentry’s squad ranks 13th in points per game (109.0) but is going up against a Cavs team that sits third in defensive efficiency, and second in opponent points allowed (102.4).

Defensively, Sacramento has been particularly poor against centers, allowing 22 points and 17 rebounds per game to opposing big men. This bodes well for Cleveland’s Jarrett Allen, who’s in the midst of a career season with averages of 16.8 PPG and 10.7 RPG. Throw in seven-footer and star rookie Evan Mobley, as well as the 6’11 Lauri Markkanen, and the Kings will likely have trouble containing the size of Cleveland’s frontcourt.

Our model has the Cavaliers at a solid -360 fair money line versus -210 at Fanduel Sportsbook, driving our view of Cleveland as a five-star play tonight. With our model’s expected margin of victory of +9.1 in the Cavs’ favor, the current spread of -5 looks appealing as a four-star play. We are less enthused about tonight’s game total, as our projection (220.7) is only modestly above the current 219.0.