NBA Defensive Player of the Year Odds – January Update: Draymond Green Rises To The Top

We’re almost halfway through the season, so it’s a good time to check in on the race for the Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) award. Before the season, I highlighted five players that offered some value to win the prize, so let’s examine how those selections are stacking up so far.

But first, before diving into our analysis, here are a few things worth noting regarding the history of the award:

Previous winners often won it on multiple occasions. Last year’s winner, Rudy Gobert, won it for the third time in his career, and he’s finished top three in the voting in the past six seasons.
Since the award was introduced in 1983, ten players have won it more than once. Furthermore, four players have won it at least three times. Thus it’s fair to say that those stats limit the number of players who have a legitimate chance to win the award. Those winners also tend to play in the frontcourt as the last guard to win the prize was Gary Payton in 1996.

For a complete list of players who could be in contention, be sure to head over to FanDuel Sportsbook. There you can find daily updated odds for this award and others throughout the regular season.

Rudy Gobert +380 to +240
Ben Simmons +500 to OTB
Giannis Antetokounmpo +700 to +1000
Bam Adebayo +1600 to +6500
Draymond Green +2500 to +110

Rudy Gobert: +240

Before the season, Gobert’s odds were +380 to win DPOY. And roughly a quarter of the way into the season, he had the shortest odds of any player at +210. However, now we’re seeing his odds are slightly longer are +240. Frankly, that seems a bit harsh considering that Gobert is arguably having another great season. The three-time DPOY winner averages 15.5 points and 15.1 rebounds through 37 games this season. His rebounding’s up from 13.5 per game in the previous season, and defensive rebounds are also up from 10.1 to 11.5. And although his blocks are down from 2.7 to 2.3, his steals are up from 0.6 to 0.8 per game.

Even though Gobert’s odds appear to be worsening, we have to remember that sportsbooks are often adjusting their numbers in response to their liabilities in the futures market. It’s normal for there to be ebbs and flows in this market. With a little more than half the season remaining, we’ll likely see even more movement on Gobert’s odds.

As a result, I don’t see any reason to overreact if you’re already holding a ticket on the Utah center. And if you’re late to the party, this would be the time to start slowly building your position on Gobert.

Ben Simmons: OTB

It’s hard to imagine that Ben Simmons could miss the entire season after requesting a trade from the 76ers. He’s yet to return to the court, whether in a game or a practice. Previously, there were reports of the 76ers accelerating discussions to trade him, but now it appears those have died down. Simmons is a complete non-factor to win the award, and he’s entirely off the board.

Giannis Antetokounmpo +1000

It took a while for Milwaukee to get going this season after lifting the NBA title in July. The Bucks got off to a 6-8 start, but since then, they’ve won 19 of their next 26 games to improve to 25-15. I think the slow start has hurt Antetokounmpo in the DPOY race. His numbers right now are better than when he won the award in 2020 and finished with 13.6 rebounds, 1.0 blocks, and 1.0 steals per game. This season, he’s averaging 11.5 rebounds, 1.5 blocks, and 1.1 steals per game.

As a team, the Bucks rank 11th in defensive efficiency. The bad news is two other contenders vying for this award are on teams ranked in the top-five defensive efficiency. With scoring down across the league due to changes in how referees officiate games, that might work against Antetokounmpo and explain why his odds continue to worsen. This might not be Antetokounmpo’s year despite another quality campaign thus far.

Bam Adebayo: +6500

Adebayo started all 18 games before tearing a ligament in his thumb on Nov. 29. His injury required surgery, and doctors set his recovery timeline at four to six weeks. The former Kentucky product has yet to return to the court though he is again traveling with the team. While the injury is partly responsible for his odds dramatically worsening, on the court, Adebayo’s blocks per game dropped from 1.0 in the previous year to 0.3. However, his rebounding improved from nine per game to 10.2, while his steals remained relatively flat from 1.2 to 1.1 per game. As things stand now, Adebayo’s missed more than half his team’s games so far. To win this award, it helps if you’re available. And unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case for Adebayo. While I’m sure his odds will shorten as soon as he starts playing again, I’m just not sure he’ll be playing at a higher level than some of the other competitors in this field.

Draymond Green: +110

No player’s odds have improved more than Draymond Green as he went from +2500 at the start of the season to +110 with 45 Warriors’ games remaining. I loved his odds in the preseason at 25-to-1 for a player that’s already won the DPOY award.

I looked closely at the Warriors roster coming into the season, and it was clear the team aimed to be even more defensive-minded with their burgeoning young talent. Interestingly, this past season, Golden State finished fifth in defensive efficiency. This year, the Warriors are atop the league, and they’re the only team limiting opponents to fewer than 100 points per 100 possessions. Green’s going to get a lot of credit for that, especially since Warriors’ center, James Wiseman, is still sidelined with a meniscus tear.

But let’s turn our attention back on Green because he’s increased his rebounding from 7.1 per game to 7.8. His blocked shots have also gone up from 0.8 to 1.2 per game, and his steals have taken a slight dip from 1.7 to 1.4 per game. However, you have to go beyond the numbers to appreciate Green’s contribution to the Warriors defensively. His basketball IQ in terms of floor spacing and help defense is second to none in the league.

Playing defense is undoubtedly an art form, and few players can break down its intricacies as well as Green. If you didn’t jump on board when I gave Green out at +2500, then I’m sorry to tell you that this train has left the station.