#15 Saint Peter's vs. #8 North Carolina: Four Bets to Make
The Elite Eight continues on Sunday and in the second part of the doubleheader, Saint Peter’s looks to keep their Cinderella story alive while North Carolina seeks their first Final Four appearance since 2017 and a date with rival Duke in the next round.
Saint Peter’s +8.5 (-114)
Fading Saint Peter’s over their last ten games has been an expensive endeavor as the Peacocks have covered all ten games they have played dating back to February 25. You just can’t fade the Cinderella as things stand because although predictive metrics and most analyses have considered them to be dead in the water for every game they have played, the team has found an offensive kick they have not had all season long. Sorting Bart Torvik since February 25, Saint Peter’s ranks 20th in the nation has the best defense remaining in the field.
North Carolina Team Total Under 73.5 Points (-120)
This correlates with the stout defense of the Peacocks. Saint Peter’s has held all but one team in the past ten games under this team total with the only exception being Kentucky where the Wildcats cleared this number in overtime. Another area of potential value here is the lack of bench minutes for North Carolina. The Tar Heels rank 343rd in the nation in bench minutes while Saint Peter’s sits at 17th. Tired legs could lead to some scoring droughts against such a tough defense here. The slight concern here comes with North Carolina’s speedy pace of play, but Saint Peter’s has done well to slow things down and dictate the pace in each game throughout the tournament.
Doug Edert Over 9.5 Points (+104)
Edert has taken the tournament by storm and with good reason. He is the team’s best sharpshooter and has cleared this total in five straight games. They love getting the ball into his hands for free throws to close out games late where he is as clutch as it gets as an 88 percent free-throw shooter. That or just a few three-pointers should get us over this number and it feels far too low for a player who has averaged 14.3 points per game over the course of the tournament.
KC Ndefo Under 5.5 Rebounds (+114)
Ndefo is an incredible shot-blocker and a solid rebounder, but his lack of size has compromised his rebounding ability against bigger, power conference opponents. The 6’7″ senior snatched just three rebounds in each of their two games against #2 Kentucky and #3 Purdue. Between the size and rebounding capability of Armando Bacot and the additional size of Brady Manek, Ndefo will struggle to get to the boards here. Fade his rebounding total in this one.
