NBA Finals Odds: Betting Reset After Two Games Of Celtics-Warriors
The best-of-seven series is tied entering Game 3
Now two games into the NBA Finals, everyone wants a little action on the last two teams standing (and I don't blame them.)
We saw the series price open at Warriors -150 / Celtics +135. After Boston took Game 1 on the road, bookmakers made the Celtics -170 favorites to win the series, a massive jump in the odds. After Golden State tied up the series, it's now closer to a pick 'em (PK: the bookmakers view the teams as evenly matched and the odds are essentially the same for each team).
If you watched the "Ultimate Betting Show" this week, you heard us mention this NBA Finals stat: If the line is six or less, the winner of the game is 64-0-1 against the spread since 2011. That tells us there's not much value in an underdog to cover and that you might as well go with the moneyline to get the better price. For example, the Warriors are +132 on the moneyline in Game 3. They are getting +3.5 points at (-110) odds. Instead of risking $110 to win $100 on the spread, you risk $100 to win $132 on the moneyline.
The MVP market is tough because bookmakers are basically begging for money on anyone not named Stephen Curry or Jason Tatum, The odds have increased on everyone post-Game 1. Look at the difference after just one game (via DraftKings Sportsbook):
| Current | Before Game 2 | |
| Stephen Curry | +100 | +165 |
| Jayson Tatum | +115 | +125 |
| Jaylen Brown | +900 | +550 |
| Marcus Smart | +7000 | +1800 |
| Al Horford | +7000 | +1400 |
| Draymond Green | +8000 | +8000 |
| Andrew Wiggins | +10000 | +8000 |
| Klay Thompson | +20000 | +8000 |
Klay Thompson with 200-1 odds? Jaylen Brown at +900? Enticing numbers, but this massive shift in odds tells us one thing: The award is unlikely to go to anyone but Curry or Tatum. You're better off saving your money for wagers that have a higher likelihood of cashing. Luckily, there are plenty of other bets for the series and for the individual games.
So where is there value now? Well, you can bet the exact series:
Exact finish (via DraftKings)
Boston in six +260
Golden State in seven +270
Golden State in six +500
Boston in seven +500
Boston in five +600
Golden State in five +750
Exact games
Five +310
Six +135
Seven +135
If you believe in the zig-zag theory (the theory that when a team loses a game, you should bet them to cover the spread in the game directly after), then you would be betting Boston to go up 2-1. Boston in 6 games is already the favorite at +260. You're going to see those odds drop with another Celtics win.
You can also bet on a side to win a specific quarter. For example, the Warriors now have won the third quarter by an average of 17.5 points in the first two games of the series. This is nothing new; the Warriors ranked No. 1 in third-quarter net rating from 2015 to 2019. They finished second this year, outscoring opponents by 10.5 points per 100 possessions in the third. I should emphasize what I always say on the show, which is trends are not predictive. However, such a large sample size makes it less of a random result and more of a legitimate edge, mostly credited to the Warriors' halftime adjustments.
The prop market always provides plenty of options as well: points, assists, rebounds, combos (a mix of PTS+REB +AST). You also bet "Game Leaders." If you think Steph has a big game but don't want to pay the juice on his Over 28.5, you can bet him to lead both teams in points at +125 (FanDuel). Or do you expect a big bounce-back game from Jaylen Brown? You can get Brown at +400 to lead all scorers.
Let's say you think the Celtics have a better shooting performance outside the arc in Game 2, closer to what we saw in Game 1. Instead of guessing which player will hit their 3's, bet a team prop: made 3-pointers. In Game 1, the Celtics made 21 3-pointers. Their team total is set at 14.5 for made 3's in Game 3. They hit this in Game 2, shooting 40.5% from long range. In Game 1, they knocked down 21 3-pointers as a team. That's decent value on the over when you consider the fact they hit this over in both games of the series already, even with some scoring slumps.
Live betting is always interesting as well. Let's say you like the Celtics in Game 3 but don't want to lay the points with them. If they get down at some point in the game, check the live lines for plus-points or plus-money value and bet them live. Basketball is a game of runs; both teams had leads of 15 in Game 1 and of at least nine in Game 2. It's all about timing and getting in at the right time.
Above all, though, always remember this: There is no reason to force a bet. If you don't love something, don't bet it. If you want action on the game, consider betting a smaller unit (If your normal unit size is $10, bet $5 or less.) It never hurts to just sit back and watch the game and even keep track of a bet you liked and see if the market changes leading up to the game. Closing Line Value (also known as CLV, the price a bettor gets relative to the closing price) is not quite cold hard cash but it does give you an idea of whether or not you had the right idea or were on the "right track" with your wager. The market isn't always right, but if you get a price of -130 and that number is bet up or changed to -150 by game time -- that 20 cent difference lets you know you were on the right side with the market. Understanding CLV and the market makes you a more profitable bettor in the long run, which always is the goal.
