NFL Season Win Total: Books Downgrade Browns, Raiders, Colts

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September 22

Futures lines, like NFL fans, can be very fickle. Teams can quickly go from the season is over to a playoff contender (Dallas Cowboys) or the division favorite to a .500 team (Indianapolis Colts) based on one outcome.
 
Let’s look at the negative line movements in the NFL season win totals coming off the Week 2 results.
Line Movement Decreased (Week 2 to current)
  • Browns 9.5 to 8.5 (under -130)
  • Colts 9.5 to 7.5 (over -140)
  • Raiders 8.5 to 7.5 (over -110)
  • Commanders 8.5 to 7.5 (over -115)
  • Panthers 6.5 to 5.5 (over -120)
Browns (Lost vs. Jets 31-30): A loss to the Jets might be an automatic line movement decrease at the BetMGM Sportsbook. Even if that’s not the policy, that was the type of brutal loss (up 13 with under two minutes remaining) that can stick with a team. The schedule starts getting tough in Week 5.
 
Colts (Lost at Jaguars 24-0): Has any team been more disappointing through two games than the Colts? After coming out of Houston with a tie, Indy was served a crushing defeat at the Jags. They started the season against teams who combined for seven wins in 2022 and are 0-1-1. No bueno.
 
Raiders (Lost vs. Cardinals 29-23): The Raiders didn’t just fall to 0-2, they blew a 20-0 halftime lead and lost in overtime on a scoop and score by the Cardinals just when it looked like Las Vegas was getting into field goal range. With five more games against the AFC West, getting over .500 will be challenging.
 
Commanders (Lost at Lions 36-27): It’s not just that they lost or who they lost to, but how they lost. Washington is supposed to have a big-time d-line, but the Lions offense looked like a juggernaut on Sunday. Jared Goff connected on four TD passes, and Detroit rushed for 8.0 yards per carry. The Commanders are lucky not to be 0-2, and this line movement reflects that.
 
Panthers (Lost at Giants 19-16): Oh, Carolina. The Panthers lost two fumbles at New York and have found a way to lose two very winnable games against vulnerable teams. With the Saints, Cardinals, 49ers, Rams, and Bucs coming up, Carolina might not be favored in a game until November. 

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