Patriots Vs. Dolphins Week 1 Betting Preview: Trends, Props, Pick

The New England Patriots have spent nearly a week preparing in the Sunshine State for the Miami Dolphins and the South Beach heat in hopes it will help Mac Jones and company get off to a scorching 2022 start.

On the other sideline, first-year head coach Mike McDaniel will get his first shot at Bill Belichick as the offensive guru will try to show a glimpse of what the new-look Dolphins offense might look like for Tua Tagovailoa.

Here is what bettors should know before placing a Week 1 wager with odds and props courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:

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New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-3.5)
Total: over/under 46.5
When: Sunday, Sept. 11, 1 p.m. ET
Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla.

BETTING TRENDS TO KNOW
As Patriots fans surely already know, having success in Miami has been one of New England’s biggest downfalls of late. It’s led to many referring to South Beach as a “House of Horrors” for Bill Belichick’s team. The Patriots are 2-7 in their previous nine trips to Miami while the Dolphins are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 meetings at home, including three straight ATS wins. There’s something about the sunny skies which signal dark clouds for New England as depicted by the “Miami Miracle” and so many others. The Patriots are 8-9 in their last 17 games against the Dolphins, including those in New England.

The Under has gone 3-1 in the last four meetings, as well.

While it’s a new season with new expectations, it’s worth noting the 2021 Patriots, who finished second in the AFC East at 10-7, compiled a 58.7% ATS clip (10-7). The Dolphins, who finished third in the division, recorded a similar 56.3% rate (9-7-1). New England was more profitable on the Over (9-8) than Miami (7-10).

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PATRIOTS PROP TO CONSIDER
Mac Jones Over 31.5 pass attempts: During the first game of Jones’ NFL career, he threw 39 times against the Dolphins despite the Patriots having a better running game than it seems they currently have. Jones eclipsed this number eight times last season and now enters his sophomore campaign with more familiarity with his receivers. There are plenty of questions relating to the New England offense, but reports have indicated the group is better when Jones gets to survey in the pocket and pick defenses apart. Additionally, the Dolphins are down a starting cornerback in Byron Jones and seem to be more stout against the run, where New England continues to push forward with a new scheme on the ground.

DOLPHINS PROP BET TO CONSIDER
Chase Edmonds anytime touchdown scorer +150: If you’re willing to be a little more adventurous, Edmonds +950 to score the game’s first touchdown might be something you want to consider. McDaniel and Tagovailoa have a cast of weapons now with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert and even tight end Mike Gesicki, who’s another red-area target. But we can’t help but think Edmonds is going to see the fair share of red zone work and his ability in McDaniel’s wide-zone runs could lead to a career year. There’s been plenty of praise for Tagovailoa this offseason, but it shouldn’t surprise anyone if he hands off a few times at the goal line in Week 1.

PICK: Miami -3.5
It’s difficult to look past New England’s history in Miami, coupled with the questions which consistently were at the forefront throughout training camp pertaining to the Patriots offense. We don’t yet know who is going to call plays for Jones and company. We also don’t yet know how the offensive line is going to look after a shaky-at-best preseason. And if the offensive line can’t keep Jones standing, Miami has the offensive firepower to run away with it.

Sure, the Dolphins had plenty of offseason turnover with a new coach and cast of new characters, but their on-field talent should allow them to put up some points against a Patriots defense that enters Week 1 without a lockdown cornerback for the first time in a decade. Perhaps the Patriots will figure it out in the short term, but all indications make it seem a slow start to the season is more than possible.