The Spread Sharp Report: Russell Wilson’s Broncos Massive Favorite

Russell Wilson makes his return to Seattle on “Monday Night Football” as massive road favorites, and the betting public are riding high with the Broncos.

The Seahawks made a blockbuster trade to send their Pro-Bowl quarterback to Denver, and the NFL schedule makers gave fans what they wanted with Wilson making his Lumen Field return to start the season. The Broncos are six-point favorites after opening as four-point favorites, and the over/under is set at 44.

Heading into the matchup, DraftKings Sportsbook revealed 88% of the bets were on Denver at -6.5, and 89% of bets were on the moneyline when it was priced at -295 — it has gone to -260 heading into kickoff. Total bets have largely been even on both sides as bettors are likely determining how dominant the Broncos will be against starter Geno Smith.

BetMGM has seen similar lopsided bets toward Denver with 92% of the handle going at the -6.5 number. Again, the total is close to even on both sides with a slight edge to Over 44 with 51% of bets. On PointsBet, 92% of wagers have gone toward the moneyline at -301 after it opened at -190, and bettors have favored the Under with 54% of bets going at that same 44 number. WynnBet has seen a different disparity when it comes to the total with 52.1% of bets going toward the Over, but the handle has drifted toward the Under at 59.1%.

This has been the decision point for bettors when it comes to side and total wagers. The public is set on the Broncos, but there is a divide when it comes to the total.

Historical trends would lean toward the Under. Denver went under the total in 12-of-17 games last season, and Seattle went under the total in 11-of-17 games in 2021. The question will be how well Wilson gels with his wide receivers, specifically Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, and on the other end, how head coach Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Shane Waldron game plan against their former quarterback.

An island game like “Monday Night Football” will always bring in action for props. There are Wilson parlays that are worth looking at and other enticing plays, especially for second-year running back Javonte Williams, who has been penciled in for a breakout under head coach Nathaniel Hackett. They’ll just have to hope Melvin Gordon doesn’t factor in too heavily in the game plan.

The most bet player props at many sportsbooks either involve Wilson or Williams. BetMGM’s most bet player prop is Williams to score the first touchdown at +650. PointsBet has seen 87.9% of bets go toward Wilson’s passing yards over (250.5), and at DraftKings, its for the Broncos QB to go over 1.5 passing touchdowns at -135.

The public hoping for a big night for Denver, and if Wilson’s pregame attire is of any indication, it is hoping for a big debut, too.