Christian McCaffrey Trade: Fantasy Impact Of 49ers-Panthers Blockbuster
Jeff Wilson Jr.'s stock plummets in San Francisco
The San Francisco 49ers’ blockbuster trade with the Carolina Panthers for running back Christian McCaffrey sent shockwaves across the NFL, with football fans flooding social media in the immediate aftermath of the news. That’s how the world works in 2022.
One prevailing subject of conversation, amid the internet chatter: Fantasy football.
McCaffrey, after all, has been a top-five pick in most drafts for several years, and his departure from Carolina and arrival in San Francisco obviously has huge ramifications for fantasy football owners — even those who don’t own CMC.
So, let’s break down the magnitude of this deal from several angles.
What does the trade mean for McCaffrey’s fantasy stock?
McCaffrey is one of the top running backs (and overall players) in fantasy football. And if anything, this trade boosts his value. It certainly doesn’t hurt it, outside of maybe this Sunday when the 49ers first assimilate him into their offense against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Sure, there’s always some uncertainty when a player changes teams, and only five teams have targeted running backs in the passing game less than San Francisco. But the Niners leaned on Jeff Wilson Jr. — a fine-but-not-great player — to be their backfield workhorse the past few weeks amid various injuries. Now, McCaffrey presumably will step into that role, seeing massive volume in an offense that’s far better than the one he’s leaving behind in Carolina.
The Panthers’ offense ranks dead-last in EPA/play, with the second-fewest red-zone attempts per game. It’s actually amazing McCaffrey has been as productive as he’s been in 2022.
Who does the trade mean for the 49ers?
Obviously, it’s a huge addition to San Francisco’s offense as a whole. McCaffrey isn’t just some chess piece. He’s a foundational talent, evidenced by the massive haul of draft picks the Niners relinquished to obtain his services. San Francisco owns the eighth-highest rush percentage ahead of Week 7, and that number could climb with McCaffrey in the fold. But it’s also likely Kyle Shanahan designs an abundance of pass plays to get McCaffrey the ball in space, which would, in turn, raise Jimmy Garoppolo’s ceiling.
Another weapon — especially one as excellent as McCaffrey — can only be a good thing for the veteran quarterback. And it’s hard to imagine McCaffrey’s arrival negatively affecting Deebo Samuel, George Kittle or, to a lesser extent, Brandon Aiyuk as the other fantasy-relevant players in the Bay Area.
Wilson is the most impacted, going from a possible RB2/FLEX play to droppable in most leagues. It’s also not worth rostering either of San Francisco’s other healthy running backs, Tevin Coleman or Tyrion Davis-Price, and the long-term outlook for Elijah Mitchell (sprained MCL) definitely took a hit. It’s OK to keep Mitchell stashed on IR — McCaffrey has battled injuries in recent years, and Mitchell is a decent handcuff for later in the season — but you don’t necessarily need to if your hand is being forced elsewhere.
What does the trade mean for the Panthers?
For now, we’re looking at a committee comprised of D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard. You probably can flip a coin as to who sees more touches, though Foreman has more upside, having performed well with the Tennessee Titans last season while Hubbard mostly struggled in relief of McCaffrey.
Both are worth speculative adds — again, we lean toward Foreman — if you’re thin at running back. Just don’t rush to insert either into your starting lineup, at least until we gain some clarity. As mentioned, Carolina’s offense is a total mess right now. You’re best served avoiding the situation altogether, while keeping a casual eye on the Panthers’ backfield only to see if a lead back emerges.
What running backs can I target in free agency?
Own Wilson and now looking for an RB replacement? Aside from Foreman and/or Hubbard, it’s worth looking to see if any of these running backs are available in your league: Brian Robinson (Washington Commanders), Tyler Allgeier (Atlanta Falcons), Latavius Murray (Denver Broncos) and Kenyan Drake (Baltimore Ravens).
In some cases, you might be better off just bolstering your depth at wide receiver. Or simply keeping Wilson and/or Mitchell wouldn’t be the worst play, either, seeing as McCaffrey has missed significant time in recent seasons. Wilson, right now, remains a high-value handcuff despite the expectation that his week-to-week role will diminish with McCaffrey’s arrival.
