NFL Odds: Week 6 Underdogs To Watch In Potential Upsets
Would it really be an "upset" if the Chiefs beat the Bills?
The dogs continue to bark in the NFL as we get set to enter Week 6.
It probably shouldn't come as much of a surprise given the parity we've seen through five weeks, but betting underdogs have been extremely profitable thus far in the 2022 season.
ESPN Chalk analyst David Payne Purdum pointed out earlier this week that it was another big week for the dogs, who went 9-5 against the spread in Week 5. With five weeks down, underdogs have posted a 44-30-3 ATS record, hitting at a nearly 60% clip. That "winning percentage" is the best since 2010, Purdum revealed while relaying information from ESPN researcher Mackenzie Kraemer.
In this spot last week, we circled both the Colts and Cardinals as worthwhile underdog wagers. Indianapolis won outright on Thursday night, and Arizona took undefeated Philly to the wire before missing a field goal that would have sent the game to overtime.
With that being said, we are onto NFL Week 6 with three underdogs to watch who could even pull outright upsets.
(+3) New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns
These teams are nearly identical, all things considered. Neither has a good win this season, both are potentially hampered by iffy quarterback play, but that's only when they aren't running the ball down the opponent's throat. Furthermore, it's two bad run defenses. So, it's not entirely surprising to see Cleveland giving the field goal at home, perhaps an extra half-point accounting for the potential of Bailey Zappe making his first career road start. All of that being said: The one major difference between these two teams is coaching. Bill Belichick handles bad teams, and the Browns are more or less a bad team. Cleveland's biggest opportunity is probably with its pass rush, but you have to imagine the New England coaching staff will game-plan around that with runs right at the edge of that Cleveland defense and wear it down. On the other side, the Patriots will sell out to stop the run and dare Jacoby Brissett to beat them. He probably will not do that.
(+3) Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals
Is Geno Smith actually good? Ehhhh. He has been great so far for Seattle, who seems to have very much won the Russell Wilson trade. This looks like a good matchup for Smith and the Seattle offense. The Cardinals don't generate a ton of pressure on the quarterback, and they have to blitz in order to get at the passer. Only the New York Giants have blitzed more through five weeks. Smith has been quite good against the blitz, completing a league-best 79% of his passes with three touchdowns and no picks and just one turnover-worthy play, per Pro Football Focus. The defense stinks, but it hasn't stopped them from playing close games. Only one of the Seahawks' three losses has come by more than a touchdown, and they're averaging 33 points per game the last three weeks. Bettors must feel pretty good about getting a field goal at home in the division here.
(+3) Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills
Look, the headline and story idea are what they are. We're looking for the underdogs with the best chance of pulling the upset, and that includes a perennial Super Bowl contender with one of the greatest NFL quarterbacks of all time at home getting a field goal against a team they beat eight months ago. The Bills are a wagon, and the Chiefs have looked mortal. But this is almost a blind spot for us to take the points ... even if it's probably a trap.
