NFL Odds: Three Betting Favorites To Avoid In Week 6

We're not totally sold on the 49ers just yet


Oct 11, 2022

Week 6 in the NFL is here, and we’ve got a few must-see matchups on the slate. touched on this earlier this week, but a pair of potential conference championship previews highlight the slate with the Kansas City Chiefs-Buffalo Bills rematch leading into a primetime showdown between the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys that the football public will actually care about.

The emerging theme of the 2022 NFL season, however, might be the relative dearth of elite teams. Aside from those four, it’s hard to have too much confidence in any team in the league, which makes it even more difficult to lay the points with betting favorites. In fact, here are three favorites we might avoid betting in Week 6.

(-7) Green Bay Packers vs. New York Jets
This isn’t an overreaction to the Packers choking in London. They just aren’t beating anyone other than the Bears convincingly right now, and it’s hard to see that changing against a Jets team that just hung 40 on the Dolphins. The Packers’ defense is an issue again, due to vanilla defense and soft coverage aka the exact sort of defense that a relatively inexperienced team like the Jets should be able to solve. The Green Bay offense has its own issues, too. Whether it’s Matt LaFleur’s play-calling or Aaron Rodgers’ stubbornness (most likely, a combination of both), Green Bay can’t get any offensive rhythm. There’s also a familiarity factor to consider: Jets coach Robert Saleh is one of LaFleur’s best friends, and LaFleur’s brother, Mike, is Saleh’s offensive coordinator. It’ll be hard for anyone to surprise the other this week.

(5.5) San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons
The half-point swing makes it a little easier to stomach the 49ers, but we’ll stay away from San Francisco regardless. There’s the travel thing to consider here. The Niners will stay in West Virginia after last week’s win in Carolina before heading to Atlanta this weekend. They have done it before, but it’s something to consider. Injuries are an issue for the 49ers, too, with cornerback Emmanuel Moseley out for the year and Nick Bosa’s status very much in question. The Falcons have the playmakers to hang with the 49ers, and laying points with Jimmy Garoppolo on the road two weeks in a row is easier said than done.

(-5) Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys
Philly has had the luxury of playing some bad defenses this season like Detroit, Minnesota and Arizona, all of which rank in the bottom seven of defensive DVOA. They did beat Jacksonville, a top-10 defense, but that was largely due to Trevor Lawrence losing his mind and turning it over five times. The Cowboys might have the NFL’s best defense and should be able to present some issues for a Philly offense that has problems closing out games. The Cowboys are likely to have Cooper Rush under center again, but that hasn’t been a huge issue to this point. The Cowboys have turned it over just twice this season, and one of those came in Week 1 with Dak Prescott at quarterback. The Eagles should stay undefeated, they’re the better team, but this game feels like another field-goal game in the division.

Thumbnail photo via Isaiah J. Downing/USA TODAY Sports Images

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