NFL Picks: Week 10 Best-Bet Parlay Embraces Saints-Steelers Ugliness
Is there value on the Bills regardless of quarterback?
Some might call last week's NESNBets NFL best-bet parlay an act of cowardice. Those same people also have to call last week's best-bet parlay a winner, though.
We got back to basics, simplified things and went with the bare minimum to pick up our first win since Week 1. The two-game, hyper-focused parlay of unders hit, thanks in large part to the ineptitude of the Patriots and Colts offenses paired with some stellar defense in Jets-Bills.
We cannot rest on our laurels, though, and we're back at it for Week 10 with another three-bet parlay.
Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins OVER 48.5 (-110)
As expected, the Dolphins have one of the NFL's most efficient offenses this season. The Browns offense, in spite of just about every expectation, are just as good if not better. These two teams rank in or near the top 10 in just about every offensive statistic, traditional or advanced. Both are top-five by EPA per play, both are top-10 in big plays, both have top-10 red-zone defenses, and both quarterbacks are among the NFL's most efficient. And on top of that, neither team has a good defense. They're both in the bottom quarter of the league in defensive DVOA and in the bottom half of big plays allowed. The total is the second-highest of the weekend, but these teams in their respective schedules this season have played nine combined games where the total amount of points was 50 or more. That's basically 50-50, and now they get together. Even something as simple as 27-24 gets us home.
(-3.5) Buffalo Bills vs. Minnesota Vikings (-110)
This line has done a nosedive given the concern over Josh Allen's injured elbow. There's about a touchdown difference between Allen and backup Case Keenum, so the market really has settled into a spot where the line probably makes sense with Keenum getting the start. It certainly feels like that will be the case, but if for some reason Allen finds a way to give it ago, we've locked in Buffalo at a very good number at home. Even if Allen can't go, though, the Bills might be the play. Sean McDermott and his coaching staff have done a nice job of building some institutional stability, so the Bills shouldn't look clueless if Keenum has to play. You could do worse than Keenum, too, who has had some success in the league and did win his two starts last season, completing 67% of his passes with a 95.3 passer rating in those games. That was with Cleveland, and he's got a much better supporting cast (and defense) to have his back in Buffalo. And as far as the Vikings go, Minnesota is 7-1 despite having only 4.3 estimated wins, per Football Outsiders. Regression has to come into play at some point.
New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 40
What a terrible football game! One thing to like about the under here is the Steelers defense should instantly improve with the expected return of TJ Watt. This isn't meant to give him all the credit or anything, but the Steelers forced as many turnovers in the one game he played this season as the seven he missed combined. Pittsburgh had seven sacks in that one game. It has eight in the last seven games combined. Again, he doesn't get all of the credit for that difference, but he's one of the best defensive players in the world and his impact should be felt in a big way. This might also be a bit of a weather game. It's not going to be prime offensive conditions in Pittsburgh, with a breezy 37 degrees predicted. If that wind's blowing a certain direction, we've seen in the past how it can affect not only the offense in Pittsburgh but the kicking game as well. As far as the Saints defense vs. the Steelers offense, Pittsburgh's offense has been pretty much the same since Kenny Pickett took over, and he's liable to give it away, as only four quarterbacks have more turnover-worthy passes since he became the starter.
Payout: 1 unit to win 5.96 units
To date: Up 0.87 units
