NFL Week 10 Picks: Back Bills Despite Josh Allen Injury? Chiefs Letdown?
Plus, can Tom Brady down the Seahawks in Germany?
There’s no point in beating around the bush. It’s Week 10 in the NFL, and you want picks.
NESN.com’s Mike Cole and Ricky Doyle are back to make their weekly against-the-spread picks. Before or while you dig into those, you’ll want to give “The Spread,” NESN’s football picks podcast, a listen, as Mike and Ricky run down their three favorite picks each for the Week 10 slate.
And before their full set of picks, here’s how they fared in Week 9.
Now, here are their Week 10 picks, using consensus betting lines from the NESNBets live odds page.
THURSDAY, NOV. 10
(-2.5) Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers, 8:15 p.m. ET
Mike: Falcons. PJ Walker almost had as many incompletions and interceptions (seven) as he did passing yards (nine) last week. His backup is Baker Mayfield. That quarterback situation might be too much to overcome on a short week against a better-coached, more talented team.
Ricky: Panthers. There’s not much to like about the Panthers, but the Falcons have problems, too. Enough problems, in fact, that I’m willing to blindly back the home underdog in an ugly Thursday night divisional matchup.
SUNDAY, NOV. 13
Seattle Seahawks vs. (-2.5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 9:30 a.m. (in Munich)
Mike: Seahawks. It took some horrible Rams clock management plus Tom Brady turning back the clock last week for Tampa Bay to get off the schneid. I also think I’m ready to believe in the Seahawks, whose defense — its biggest liability through five weeks — ranks No. 2 by EPA per play allowed over the last four weeks. The schadenfreude resumes for Brady haters this week.
Ricky: Bucs. Can’t use the flights to Germany as an excuse, as the trek from Seattle to Munich (somewhat surprisingly) isn’t much longer than the journey from Tampa Bay. But the Seahawks did play in Arizona last week, whereas the Buccaneers hosted the Rams. Nevertheless, this is more about the Bucs defense, which needs to make a statement overseas.
Minnesota Vikings at (-3.5) Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m.
Mike: Bills. We make our picks for Thursday, so we don’t know the Josh Allen situation. Either way, I like Buffalo, because the best-case scenario is Allen at a comically short number. Even if Case Keenum plays, I like the number for Buffalo. The Bills are considerably better, and I think the system is strong enough that Keenum gets the job done for at least one week.
Ricky: Bills. This feels like a game where Buffalo’s defense flexes its muscle — or Minnesota simply falls flat (with a huge cushion in the NFC North). The Vikings’ offense ranks just 21st in EPA/play over the last four weeks, and their six-game win streak has included victories over some shaky defenses.
Detroit Lions at (-2.5) Chicago Bears, 1 p.m.
Mike: Bears. A wild stat: Chicago leads the NFL in big plays (rushes of 10-plus yards, receptions of 20-plus yards) this season, and only Houston has a worse big-play differential than Detroit. The once-vaunted Detroit offense is 23rd in EPA per play since its bye, and they have scored exactly zero points when playing outside this season. Forecasts call for cold, breezy weather in Chicago this week, too, conditions in which Jared Goff has struggled.
Ricky: Bears. Is Justin Fields the best quarterback from the 2021 draft class? It’s looking that way more and more each week. Chicago seemingly has taken the training wheels off its dual-threat QB, and the offense suddenly is humming because of it.
Jacksonville Jaguars at (-9.5) Kansas City Chiefs, 1 p.m.
Mike: Jaguars. This could be a big Travis Etienne game. He looks like the real deal, averaging 6.23 yards per carry over his last five games (86 carries). This might be the game he gets heavily involved in the passing game, too, against a Chiefs defense that not only struggles at times to stop the run but has allowed the most receptions to running backs this season. The Jags find a way in the backdoor.
Ricky: Jaguars. An overtime win over the Titans last week. A Sunday night showdown against the Chargers in Los Angeles next week. Dare I say “letdown spot” for the Chiefs?
Cleveland Browns at (-3.5) Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m.
Mike: Browns. I like the over in this game more than anything else, but the Dolphins seemingly play tight games every week. I’m not sure this matchup — with their leaky defense against one of the NFL’s most efficient offenses — is where they reverse that trend.
Ricky: Browns. Feels like everyone is on the Miami bandwagon. Understandable, as they’re flashy and fun offensively. But that defense is unsettling, to say the least. Give me Nick Chubb over Bradley Chubb in the Chubb Bowl.
Houston Texans at (-4.5) New York Giants, 1 p.m.
Mike: Giants. The sharps clearly love the Texans this week — there were 7s out there Sunday night for this game, and it’s down almost a field goal, which I think is too much. Ultimately, New York comes off the bye week with a solid Saquon Barkley-heavy game plan and wins it by a touchdown.
Ricky: Giants. Houston’s defense ranks dead-last in rush DVOA. Give it to Saquon and get out of the way.
(-1.5) New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m.
Mike: Steelers. Every season, there are a few teams that you just never get right. The Saints are that team for me this season, so congratulations to them in advance for this blowout win in Pittsburgh.
Ricky: Steelers. Pittsburgh has been an excellent home underdog bet under Mike Tomlin. Plus, the Steelers are coming off a bye — potentially with T.J. Watt in tow — while the Saints just got fed their lunch on Monday night.
Denver Broncos at (-2.5) Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m.
Mike: Titans. Tennessee’s defense is kind of flying under the radar. They haven’t given up more than 20 points in a game since Week 3. They have the fourth-best EPA per play allowed since Week 4. Denver’s offense still isn’t good, and this is one of the bigger coaching mismatches we’ll see all season.
Ricky: Broncos. Denver has a significant rest advantage, coming off a bye whereas Tennesse’s defense just ran around for 91 plays in an overtime loss to Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City on Sunday night. And even if Ryan Tannehill returns, he’ll be tasked with shaking off any rust against a Broncos defense that ranks No. 1 in yards per drive and points per drive.
Indianapolis Colts at (-6) Las Vegas Raiders, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: Colts. Ultimately, the Jeff Saturday hiring seems like it’s designed to fail. However, as long as the players aren’t completely checked out, I think he can spend the week motivating that Indy team to exact some revenge on Josh McDaniels, who left them at the alter. The Colts having the second-ranked defense by EPA since Shaq Leonard returned helps, too.
Ricky: Raiders. Here’s the thing: The Raiders have blown three leads of 17+ points this season. Which stinks, obviously. But at least they’re putting a dent into the scoreboard. The Colts haven’t totaled 17 points in any of their last three games.
(-4.5) Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Cowboys. Do the Cowboys like Mike McCarthy? If the answer is yes, look out. McCarthy going back to Green Bay for the first time and twisting the knife in Aaron Rodgers’ Packers seems like an easy narrative to support. That the Packers’ offense is broken, and the injury report is ghastly, might also be important.
Ricky: Cowboys. The Packers are cooked. Plain and simple.
Arizona Cardinals at (-1.5) Los Angeles Rams, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Cardinals. Arizona has to beat LA at some point, and with the Rams in the midst of a lost season, now feels like the time.
Ricky: Rams. I just don’t have the stomach for watching Kyler Murray run around under duress all evening. Los Angeles has handled Arizona in recent years, and nothing the Cardinals have done this season suggests that trend will end Sunday. The Rams’ defense is still pretty good despite LA’s other warts.
Los Angeles Chargers at (-7) San Francisco 49ers, 8:20 p.m.
Mike: 49ers. That’s a lot of points, and I tried to map out a way for the Chargers to cover. Short of an alien-like performance from Justin Herbert, though, the Chargers’ injuries at key positions, paired with an inability to stop the run, make this a really tough matchup.
Ricky: Chargers. I believe in aliens — and Herbert.
MONDAY, NOV. 14
Washington Commanders at (-11) Philadelphia Eagles, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: Commanders. I’m going to be honest: I’ve had about enough of the Eagles in primetime. Kind of just meh on the Philly football experience despite the Eagles’ sterling record. In this one, though, I think Washington’s run defense keeps them in it — at least within the number.
Ricky: Commanders. Washington’s defense ranks second in rush DVOA, which will slow down Philadelphia’s high-powered offense enough — so long as the Commanders can fend off the Eagles’ usual early onslaught.
