NFL Odds: Week 10 Underdogs To Watch In Potential Upsets
Could we also see mayhem in Munich?
For as unpredictable as the NFL season has been so far, trying to find upset picks after diving into the odds and betting lines this week wasn’t easy.
As always, though, in addition to three favorites to avoid, we were able to come away with three underdogs who could pull off the upset in NFL Week 10 action this weekend.
(+2.5) Seattle Seahawks vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (in Munich)
This ultimately doesn’t mean much, but it’s an interesting bit of context for how the perceptions of this game have evolved: When the NFL schedule was announced in May and advanced lines came out for every game of the entire season, the Bucs opened as 9.5-point favorites here. You could argue no two teams in the entire league have differed from preseason expectations more than the Seahawks and Bucs, and it looks like Seattle might finally be escaping fluke territory. Pete Carroll’s first-place team has won four in a row. While the defense looked wretched through the first five weeks, Seattle has the No. 2 defense by EPA per play allowed over the last four weeks. That’s bad news for the Tom Brady-led Bucs offense. While Tampa Bay got a much-needed win last week, the Bucs are still the 18th-best offense by EPA over the last five weeks, a stretch in which they haven’t scored more than 22 points in a single game. The Germany factor looms over this game, and if it’s going to affect one team more, you’d have to think it would be the Seahawks. However, Seattle is the better team, is better coached and is generally just playing better.
(+3.5) Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins
As discussed on this week’s episode of “The Spread” podcast, the Cleveland offense has been remarkably efficient this season — despite Jacoby Brissett under center. Or maybe because of Brissett under center. The Browns quarterback ranks ninth in DVOA, seventh in QBR and ninth in EPA per play this season among starting QBs. While that might say more about the rest of the league than Brissett, it’s at least proof Kevin Stefanski’s team hasn’t been completely inept without Deshaun Watson. In fact, only one of Cleveland’s five losses has been by more than three points. Turnovers have been a bit of a problem at times, but Miami doesn’t force a ton of turnovers, with just four interceptions this season. These are two offensive-minded teams that really don’t play a ton of defense, so if you’re looking to take a shot on an underdog, the opportunity for the Browns to have the ball late with a chance to win is very much in play here.
(+3) Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
Finding a third this week was easier said than done. In the end, though, we’re rolling with the Cardinals who seem just as likely to get blown out as they are to win outright. So that tells you the level of confidence in the pick. The Rams are just broken, though. LA’s plight further reinforces the importance of strong offensive and defensive lines. The Rams’ pass rush isn’t nearly as fierce as it used to be, and on the other side, Matthew Stafford has been running for his life all season. At some point, the Cardinals have to get one of these against the Rams, and given how this season is spiraling for LA, now seems like the perfect time.
