NFL Survivor League Week 10 Picks: Considering Long-Term Plays

Josh Allen and the Bills proved to be the latest stunner for NFL survivor league players, with Buffalo being dealt a shocking Week 9 defeat against Zach Wilson and the New York Jets.

The Bills likely were one of the more popular Week 9 picks considering they entered the contest as one of just two double-digit favorites on the slate, coupled by the fact six teams were on byes. Circa Sports revealed 6% of its survivor league players rode with the Bills, further slashing the list of entries. It’s likely the same in other NFL survivor leagues — if they’re still alive, of course.

Well, given we’re at the point where a handful of the top teams might have been used, it will become increasingly important to find under-the-radar (perhaps contrarian?) plays that still provide some confidence. And we tried to highlight just that.

Here are three teams to consider and three others to avoid in NFL survivor leagues for Week 10 with spreads and moneyline odds courtesy of consensus data on the NESNBets.com live odds page:

Teams to consider:
(-9.5) Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-438 moneyline)
Disclaimer: The Chiefs are 0-4 against the spread at home this season. But any survivor leaguer doesn’t need Kansas City to cover the 10 points, only to win straight up. We’ve clearly learned there are no sure things in the NFL this season, but Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs at home against the 3-6 Jaguars, who have a fairly leaky pass defense, feels like a favorable matchup for those going all-in on a Week 10 victory.

(-4.5) New York Giants vs. Houston Texans (-226 moneyline)
This is a bit more of a long-term play than Kansas City. The Giants are coming off a bye against the 1-6-1 Texans, one of the worst teams in the league. New York hasn’t been dominant en route to any of its six wins, but the G-Men are 6-2 against the spread this season and 3-1 ATS at home. If you’re comfortable with the smaller risk, taking the Giants now saves a team like the Chiefs for further down the line.

(-3) Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions (-154 moneyline)
Any contrarians out there? Admittedly, this is even more of a risk than the Giants. But the Bears also have quarterback Justin Fields playing the best football of his NFL career. Fields and the Chicago ground game look dominant, and now they’ll get a matchup with the Lions, who allow the second-most rushing yards in the league and fourth-most per attempt. It’s worth noting the Bears have beaten the Lions in seven of their last eight head-to-head matchups, too.

Teams to avoid:
(-6) Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts (-260 moneyline)
Sure, the Colts are a mess, as showcased by the firing of Frank Reich and hiring of former ESPN NFL analyst Jeff Saturday, but have you see the Raiders? Las Vegas blew its third 17-plus point lead of the season in Week 9 against the Jaguars. We’re not about to trust the Raiders given their inability to close out games.

(-3.5) Buffalo Bills vs. Minnesota Vikings (-186)
Allen’s injury keeps us from picking the Bills. Allen’s status is in question with an elbow injury, causing Buffalo to drop four points after opening as a 7.5-point home favorite. Yes, the Bills are a complete team capable of shutting down the Minnesota offense, but we can’t help but think Buffalo will have better matchups than this one against the 7-1 Vikings.

(-2.5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Seattle Seahawks (-147)
We’re not of the belief that Tampa Bay’s game-winning drive against the Rams in Week 9 served as some magic pixie dust for Tom Brady and company. The Buccaneers have not been good, while the Seahawks have put together a stunning first half. Oh yeah, and the game is being played in Munich, Germany, adding another element of uncertainty. No thanks.