Patriots-Jets Betting Preview: Trends, Props, Pick For Week 11

The Patriots and Jets both return from their bye weeks this Sunday for what might be their biggest meeting in years -- or, at the very least, since Week 8.

The AFC East division rivals renew acquaintances Sunday at Gillette Stadium -- their second meeting of the season -- as New York looks to avenge New England's 22-17 win at MetLife Stadium last month. That loss has been the Jets' lone hiccup since September. New York is 5-1 over its last six games, a stretch that included divisional wins over both Miami and Buffalo. A win Sunday would actually put the Jets in first place in the division, at least for the time being.

The Patriots, meanwhile, remain a conundrum. New England is 5-4 but currently is the last-place team in the division despite a point differential bested by only the Bills. New England's best win so far this season, though, might be the Week 8 win over the Jets. The Patriots have taken care of business against bad teams but have yet to really prove themselves against playoff contenders not named the Jets.

This is a massive game for both teams, and given the markets involved, there also should be a lot of betting action on this one.

Here's all bettors need to know for the Week 11 Patriots-Jets clash, with betting odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.

New York Jets at (-3.5) New England Patriots
Total: Over/under 38
When: Sunday, Nov. 20, 1 p.m. ET
Where: Gillette Stadium; Foxboro, Mass.

BETTING TRENDS TO KNOW
The Patriots have won 13 straight over the Jets and 25 of the last 26. It's almost fitting that in a season in which New York has been red hot and has made mincemeat of the AFC East, it still struggles to take down big brother. We talked last time about how the Pats had been an automatic cover against the Jets, too. They did beat the number in Week 8 and have now covered in five of the last seven, but that 21-point average margin of victory since 2019 took a hit in Week 8. That game, which the Patriots won by five, could have gone much differently had the Jets not been called for roughing the passer on a would-be pick-six against Mac Jones. Even without Tom Brady, the Patriots being short home favorites is rare, and they haven't fared particularly well. The Patriots are just 3-4 straight-up and 3-4 against the spread as home favorites of four points or less since the start of 2020. In those games, an outright win is a cover, and failing to cover has been an outright loss.

The Jets haven't been especially profitable under Robert Saleh. New York is 12-14 against the spread since he took over, and only nine teams have a lower cover rate in that time. And it's literally the smallest of sample sizes, but the Jets are 0-1 straight-up and against the spread after a bye under Saleh. That one game? It was Week 7 last season when the Jets came off their bye, went to Foxboro and promptly lost 54-13 to the Patriots. So, obviously, they're hoping to buck that "trend" this time around.

PATRIOTS PROP TO CONSIDER
First patriots drive result: Punt (-135) -- It seems what little momentum the Patriots had built from on-script plays to start games and halves is gone. They're not really scoring touchdowns at any point in games, but they've been especially sluggish early. Only Carolina is averaging fewer points in the first quarter of games this season, and New England has just three first-quarter points total in its last three games. The Patriots, as we also noted this week, have needed some time to shake off the rust when they've had a week off in recent seasons. There's no reason to believe that this team, with this offense, will be the one to solve that, especially in the opening minutes. If you're looking for plus-money, a field-goal attempt at +390 is certainly an entertaining play here, too.

Zach Wilson over 10.5 rushing yards (-115) -- When it comes to rushing quarterbacks, Wilson isn't on the list. He's certainly not a major part of the New York rushing attack, but that's not to say he can't tuck it and take off. In three of his six games this season, Wilson has more than 15 rushing yards, including 24 yards against Buffalo before the bye. You have to think the Jets spent the entire off-week stressing one point to Wilson: You have to protect the football. He threw three picks in the Week 8 loss to the Patriots, and if it weren't for those turnovers, the Jets probably would have won. The Patriots are going to bring pressure, and it might make more sense for Wilson to ditch his progressions when the heat gets turned up and just take off. We've certainly seen the Patriots struggle with mobile QBs this season, and while the Jets probably won't be running power for Wilson, he does have the skill set to break off a few runs to get over the number.

PICK: Jets +3.5
I actually picked the Patriots in our Week 11 picks column, but that was at Patriots -3. The total also has gotten to a point at 38 where it's hard to justify an under bet, but it's also hard to see it going over. At the end of the day, though, this feels like a 23-20 type of game -- or something in that neighborhood -- with the Patriots winning but failing to cover. The Jets' defense is legitimately good, though the loss of Sheldon Rankins hurts, and the Patriots' offense remains unproven. It's just hard to believe New England comes out and puts up a big number. The Wilson factor makes it hard to feel good about the Jets, but they lost by less than a touchdown in East Rutherford with Wilson playing a horrendous game. If he plays just a little better -- a little smarter -- the Jets should be right there. Whether they're good enough to win the game outright feels like a stretch, but this should be a field-goal game.