NFL Teaser Picks: Dolphins Set Up Well To Compete Vs. Patriots
The Bengals should make it a fun one vs. the Bills
And then there were two. The NFL regular season wraps up in just two weeks, and Week 17 is full of some great teaser leg opportunities.
We had another successful teaser week in Week 16, cashing our three-team teaser at +160 for the second week in a row. While there are several traditional teaser spots on this weekend's slate, I only felt strongly about two, so let's look to run it back with two underdogs.
Of note, if you pair two teams in a six-point teaser at DraftKings Sportsbook, you get a line of -120 -- risk $120 to win $100. If you want plus money, you can pair three teams in a 6-point teaser for a payout of +160 -- risking $100 wins you $160. Shopping around for the best number is important here as some sportsbooks will offer two-team six-point teasers juiced at -140, while others offer -110 or -120.
Miami Dolphins +3 to +9 vs. New England Patriots
This line has flipped from where it opened, Miami a 3-point favorite, since Tua Tagovailoa was officially ruled out and placed back in the concussion protocol. That move tells us the market believes Teddy Bridgewater is a significant step down from Tagovailoa, which is arguable. It's certainly a downgrade, but Tagovailoa hasn?t looked great over the last few weeks, and Bridgewater is one of the best backups in the league. The veteran is 19-4 against the spread as a road underdog and has the best ATS record of any NFL starting QB -- 42-21, 65.5% -- with more than 25 starts, going back to 1970.
Maybe if he had questionable weapons it would be another story, but we're talking about Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, the best wideout duo in the game. Bill Belichick has pulled out a win against every backup quarterback the team has faced this season, and I'm not saying the Patriots can?t win this game, but I don't see a world where they win by more than a touchdown.
Plus, the Pats aren't fully healthy. Their top two running backs, Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson, were both limited in practice Wednesday, while tight end Jonnu Smith and do-it-all rookie Marcus Jones entered concussion protocol, which makes three cornerbacks sidelined for the game. Let's take the former favorite in this matchup and tease the 'Phins through some key numbers and up over a touchdown.
Cincinnati Bengals +1 to +7 vs. Buffalo Bills
This is going to be a fun one. With the highest total on the board at 49.5, the Monday night matchup is expected to be a shootout. A game that's close to a pick'em means the difference will be whatever defense gets the most stops and whichever quarterback makes the least mistakes. The Bengals did let the Patriots come back in last week's game, which is worrisome when you think about how Buffalo, who has won six in a row, would take advantage of such an opportunity. However, Joe Burrow and friends know they can ill afford to take the foot off the pedal at any point in this one at home, just one game behind the Bills for the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
Plus, Buffalo has had their fair share of not only leaving the backdoor open to much lesser teams than the Bengals but have even found themselves trailing in several of those matchups. Cincinnati's offense is healthy and steamrolling right now, ranked sixth in red-zone touchdown scoring percentage this season. They're undefeated at 10-0 this season when they score 21-plus points, and FanDuel has set their touchdown total to 2.5 juiced to the over, which makes me feel even better about this play.
On defense, Buffalo might have the edge, but the Bengals have been a top unit as well -- allowing only 17 points a game in their last three victories. The Cincinnati defense has played a major part in its seven-game win streak. Most notably, it beat the Kansas City Chiefs, 27-24, in Week 13, in a spot where it held Mahomes to just 16 completions with one touchdown and two sacks. If it can similarly limit Josh Allen in the passing game while keeping up its own explosive play on offense, it should be able to keep this one close. Three of the Bengals' four losses this season are by three points or fewer, all on last-second field goals. The Bengals are the best team in the NFL against the spread this season at 12-3 and have covered 12 of their last 13 games. I could see Cincy winning straight up. Still, we will tease them to a touchdown to save ourselves the sweat.
