NFL Week 15 Teaser Picks: Bills-Dolphins Barn Burner In Snow

Just like that, it’s already Week 15 in the NFL. Only a few more weeks left in the regular season to get these teasers in.

Here are two favorites and an underdog to target this weekend.

If you pair two teams in a six-point teaser at DraftKings Sportsbook, you get a line of -120 (risk $120 to win $100). If you want plus money, you can pair three teams in a six-point teaser for a payout of +160 (risking $100 wins you $160). Shopping around for the best number is important here — some sportsbooks will offer two-team six-point teasers juiced at -140, while others offer -110 or -120.

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills -7 to -1
This should be a fun one. Both teams are hearing the chirps loud and clear. There’s talk the Bills aren’t living up to their heavy-favorite Super Bowl hype and plenty of discussion about the decline in Tua Tagovailoa’s performance. I do see some truth in both concerns, which is why I think this game may be closer than the current line is implying. Week 3 in Miami, the Dolphins beat the Bills 21-19, with a tie game heading into the fourth. It has been a rough last two weeks for Tagovailoa, sure. Before that, though, he was being praised as an MVP-caliber quarterback with a 70% completion percentage, 19-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a record of 8-1. In the end, these are two talented offenses in a tough divisional game, but the edge goes to Buffalo’s top-five defense that will contain a struggling Tagovailoa. Saturday’s expected freezing temps and potential snow has been a hot topic this week as well, and we know which team is used to the cold. We have seen Bills games come down to the wire against much lesser opponents though, so let’s tease them down to just one point.

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Philadelphia Eagles -9 to -3 vs. Chicago Bears
I do think the Eagles can cover this original spread after seeing them blow out their last three opponents. However, teasing them gets you through the key number of seven, down to the key number of three, so it’s a good teaser leg. Plus, we did see them — the week before this hot streak — beat the Indianapolis Colts by just a point, so let’s play it safe here. That being said, the Eagles are laying more than a touchdown for a reason. Starting with defense — Nick Sirianni’s crew has a top-10 defense by DVOA, while Chicago has the worst. On the other side of the ball, Philadelphia has the second-best total offensive DVOA (behind only the Kansas City Chiefs), and Chicago, despite having a capable quarterback in Justin Fields, doesn’t even come close. Injuries are something to keep in mind too. Fields missed Wednesday due to an unspecified illness, along with receiver Chase Claypool who was held out with a knee injury. This Bears offense is already depleted, so any absences on game day will give the Eagles an even larger advantage. However, Philly’s run defense can be vulnerable, and Chicago runs the ball well, which could be the difference. Like I said, Philly should cover the minus-9, but let’s save ourselves a sweat and tease them down to a field goal.

Steelers +3 to +9 vs. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers have found success against some poor opponents lately (Seattle Seahawks, Denver Broncos and Atlanta Falcons). They may be wins for Carolina, but the matchup matters, and I’m not buying into any of the recent hype. It’s hard to justify laying points with Sam Darnold and an offense that ranks in the bottom-five of the NFL — 30th in pass DVOA — especially against T.J. Watt and friends. The Steelers with Watt are a very different team than the Steelers without Watt. Pittsburgh ranks third in defensive DVOA with the star linebacker on the field this season — top-five against the run and the pass. Carolina may have found some sort of success in the run game but its facing a Steelers defense that ranks around top 10 in rush DVOA this season, so I don’t see them having much luck there. Keep an eye on the health of Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Picket, who is dealing with yet another concussion. Head coach Mike Tomlin has not said which backup will start if Pickett is out, but it either will be Mitch Trubisky or Mason Rudolph, so let’s pray Pickett can play.