Patriots-Cardinals Betting Preview: Trends, Props, Pick For Week 14

Sunday was a good day for the Patriots. A win Monday could make it a great week for New England.

The Patriots travel to the desert for a “Monday Night Football” showdown against the Arizona Cardinals. Bill Belichick’s team will look to keep pace in the AFC playoff hunt after getting help Sunday in the form of losses for both the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins.

On paper, it looks like a game the Patriots should win. They are favored by almost a field goal despite just a 3-3 road record. That’s in large part because the Cardinals have rarely impressed this season while dealing with injuries at key positions. All things being equal, the Patriots have a massive coaching advantage as Arizona’s Kliff Kingsbury tries to match wits with Belichick, his former coach.

But the Patriots are no sure thing Monday night. New England has some glaring injury issues at key positions. Jakobi Meyers has already been ruled out, meaning Mac Jones will need to find someone else to act as a safety valve on gotta-have-it plays. New England also will be down at least one offensive tackle with Isaiah Wynn out, and both Trent Brown (illness) and Yody Cajuste (calf) are questionable. If there’s one area where the Cardinals are really dangerous, it’s in the passing game, and the Patriots will be without cornerback Jalen Mills.

Still, it’s a game New England should win, though that hasn’t meant as much this season as it has in years past.

Here’s all you need to know about Monday’s Patriots-Cardinals game from a betting perspective, with lines and props from DraftKings Sportsbook.

(-2.5) New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals
Total: 43.5
When: Monday, Dec. 12, 8:15 p.m. ET
Where: State Farm Stadium; Glendale, Ariz.

BETTING TRENDS TO KNOW
The Patriots have been short road favorites just a few times since Tom Brady left. New England is 2-2 straight-up and 1-2-1 against the spread in the four games it has been favored by three points or less on the road since the start of the 2020 season. Those two outright losses did come during that 2020 campaign, and the Patriots won both their games as short road favorites this season to date. They beat the Jets and covered Oct. 30, and they pushed in a 17-14 win at Pittsburgh in Week 2. Despite the uneven play over the last couple of months, the Patriots went 6-3 ATS in their last nine games. However, the late-season swoon has been very real since Brady’s departure. The Patriots are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven December games. One other small wrinkle potentially worth considering: New England is 3-4 straight-up and 2-5 ATS in its last seven games indoors. The roof at State Farm Stadium is expected to be closed Monday night.

The Cardinals are no strangers to catching points at home this season, and it typically hasn’t worked out well for them. Arizona has been a home favorite five times and has lost all five, covering in two of those contests. Kingsbury is 3-10-1 straight-up as a home dog, going 7-6 ATS since being hired. In fact, the Cardinal have lost 11 of their 12 home games, per Odds Shark. The lone bright spot for potential Arizona backers, from a trends standpoint at least, is it has covered six of its last eight against the AFC.

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PATRIOTS PROP TO CONSIDER
Mac Jones interceptions UNDER 0.5 (-130) — Maybe the Patriots come out and try to appease Jones by throwing it down the field after his meltdown last week. And maybe Matt Patricia tries to show Vance Joseph his offense isn’t ultra-conservative. But given the Cardinals’ defense, that would probably be a mistake. This is the sort of matchup New England’s offense should really be able to exploit with its (expletive) quick game, which theoretically should keep Jones from throwing picks. If we’re going to show our work on this one, let’s credit CBS Sports’ Dave Richard. According to his research, the Cardinals are one of the NFL’s worst defenses on defending short passes, while Jones is attempting 27.5 pass attempts traveling 15 yards or shorter. This also might be a game to target Jones completions and Patriots receptions props, as they might try to decapitate the Cardinals with paper cuts.

CARDINALS PROP TO CONSIDER
Kyler Murray OVER 36.5 rushing yards (-115) — Right back to the well on fading the Patriots’ defense vs. running quarterbacks — despite missing on it last week against Buffalo. Josh Allen only gained 20 yards on eight rushes in Week 13, but he didn’t really need to tuck it and run. The Bills dominated that game with their passing game and running backs rushing the ball. The Cardinals are the underdogs in this game, and if it plays out that way, they’ll be chasing points at some point. If the Patriots drop back and try to take away the passing game, that could allow Murray to break a couple. He gained 36 rushing yards or more in four of his last five games. More importantly, he should be as healthy as he has been in about a month coming off the bye, some needed time to recover his hamstring. One other potential factor is the State Farm Stadium turf. Despite the retractable roof, there’s a grass surface that has been the subject of criticism in the past. Murray is familiar with it. The Patriots defense, one that lacks speed, is not and might look even slower on the shoddy sod.

PICK: OVER 43.5
The side is almost too close to call. It’s a game the Patriots typically have taken care of in the past, but there’s no real evidence to believe they’re that team anymore, so the days of blindly backing Belichick are gone. And the Cardinals just kind of suck, so that’s tough to trust. So, we arrive at the total. The advanced metrics do like the Patriots’ defense, but when they have been asked to slow down high-powered offenses, the results have been mixed at best. The Cardinals are inconsistent, especially with Kingsbury calling the shots, but Murray chucking it up to DeAndre Hopkins or Hollywood Brown has incredibly high upside. The Patriots have major problems trying to slow down those elite receivers. On the other side, the Cardinals’ issues with the short passing game should play right into the Patriots’ favor. Arizona has made strides defensively as the season has progressed, but it still ranks 26th in defensive DVOA. One spot in which the Cardinals have been especially wretched is in the red zone. Opponents are scoring touchdowns at a nearly 70% clip, the worst mark in the NFL. If that keeps up Monday night, the Patriots march down the field and cash in repeatedly. Add it all up, and a relatively low total could get to a relatively rare prime-time over.