2023 NFL Draft: Three Potential Sleeper No. 1 Overall Picks

Practices for the East-West Shrine Game, played this Thursday (Feb. 2), have begun, while the Senior Bowl starts up on Tuesday with their game on Saturday. It’s officially NFL Draft season. 

Last week, we looked at the favorites to go No. 1 overall, Alabama man Bryce Young (-120) and C.J. Stroud (+250) out of Ohio State. There are years when we know who the first pick in the draft will be. I mean, really know. Trevor Lawrence in 2021 and Andrew Luck in 2012 are examples.

This isn’t one of those drafts. This year could develop the same way the 2015 and 2016 NFL Drafts did when they came down to two quarterbacks. In 2015, Jameis Winston edged out Marcus Mariota, while Jared Goff was selected first the following year, one spot ahead of Carson Wentz.

But what if neither Young nor Stroud blow away the talent evaluators? Who else is in the mix to have their name called first in the 2023 NFL Draft?

Defensive ends went with the top two picks of last year’s draft, and many believed had Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson been eligible, he would have been the top pick. With few weaknesses, the two-time Bronko Nagurski Award winner is considered a can’t-miss prospect. 

After quarterback, an edge rusher that can neutralize opposing QBs is the next most coveted prospect. With 34.5 career sacks, Anderson has proven he can do just that. Since 2014, there have been six quarterbacks taken with the first pick.

The other three years? All defensive ends: Travon Walker in 2022, Myles Garrett in 2017, and Jadeveon Clowney in 2014. The Jaguars already had their quarterback when they selected Walker, and many believe Chicago is in the same boat this year, which puts Anderson, who many have atop their draft boards, in play at +500.

An interior defensive lineman hasn’t gone No. 1 overall since 1994 (Dan Wilkinson). They might not be as valued as edge rushers, but there also aren’t as many who can take over a game, which is part of what makes Aaron Donald so valuable.

It’s also why some believe defensive tackle Jalen Carter can make it consecutive years with Georgia defenders going No. 1 overall. ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. released his first mock draft last week, and he had Carter going to the Bears with the first pick. The former Bulldog is tied with Anderson at +500 with the third-shortest odds to be the No. 1 overall pick at FanDuel.

Even while touting Carter as the best player in the 2023 NFL Draft due to his explosive pass rush, Kiper concedes Chicago would be wise to trade down a couple of spots to a quarterback-needy team. This brings us to the final legitimate candidate to go No. 1 overall, Kentucky quarterback Will Levis.

Levis has the fifth-shortest odds at +1000, Myles Murphy is next at +5000, followed by a troika of (offensive and defensive) linemen at +10000. They’re not long shots; they’re no shots. Don’t throw your money away. On the other hand, Levis might provide some value at his current price. 

At 6’3” and 231 pounds, Levis has better size than either Young or Stroud. He also has a superior arm. That raw talent has drawn comparisons to Josh Allen, the third QB selected in the 2018 NFL Draft, No. 7 overall, behind No. 1 pick Baker Mayfield and No. 3 choice Sam Darnold.

I’d be shocked if the Houston Texans (No. 2 pick), Indianapolis Colts (No. 4 pick), Seattle Seahawks (No. 5 pick), or Carolina Panthers (No. 9 pick) don’t trade into the No. 1 slot to take a quarterback. So if not Young or Stroud, why not Levis?

I’m not saying he should go No. 1 overall, but he could. Remember, all it takes is one team to fall in love with his tools and buy into the Allen comps.