UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski Preview & Best Bets

A top-two pound-for-pound bout headlines UFC 284 as Featherweight Champion Alexander Volkanovski challenges Lightweight Champion Islam Makhachev.

Date: Saturday, February 12, 2023 | Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
Venue: RAC Arena – Perth, Australia | TV: PPV

Scrapping With Rude Boy

Jack Della Maddalena had a rough start to his mixed martial arts career, losing his first two fights. Since then, Della Maddalena has gone undefeated, recording 11 knockouts across 13 wins. In addition, he’s finished his first three UFC bouts by first-round knockout.

Randy Brown is on a four-fight win streak, taking out Alex Oliveira, Jared Gooden, Khaos Williams, and Francisco Trinaldo.

Brown is the larger fighter with a four-inch height and five-inch reach advantage. Della Maddalena will have an edge in power but will have to work his way inside to land on the lengthy Brown.

The Aussie is a significant favorite at -350, so an outright wager isn’t ideal. However, with Della Maddalena’s power, taking him to win by knockout or technical knockout is still a comfortable bet at -110.

The Fighting Falmer Stares Down El Pantera

No. 2 Yair Rodriguez takes on No. 5 Josh Emmett for the interim UFC Featherweight Championship. Neither fighter has been very active over the past few years. Emmett has won five in a row over the last four years, while Rodriguez is 3-1-1 over the previous five.

Rodriguez is seven years younger and five inches taller but only has a one-inch reach advantage. The American averages 1.14 knockdowns per 15 minutes to the Mexican’s 0.28, while averaging 4.28 and 4.67 significant strikes per minute, respectively.

They also exhibit similar defensive metrics, with Emmett absorbing only 0.17 more significant strikes per minute and a takedown defense rate of 58 percent to Rodriguez’s 62. Emmett averages 0.21 more takedowns per 15 minutes, but Rodriguez averages 0.64 more submissions per 15 minutes.

Statistically, the two are similar, but the x-factors could be Rodriguez’s age and athleticism. At -196, expect El Pantera to edge out the older Emmett, but also consider his odds to win by decision (+155).

UFC Lightweight Championship Main Event

Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski
Odds to Win: Makhachev -400 | Volkanovski +285
How Will Fight End: KO/TKO +300 | Submission +135 | Decision +125
Will the fight go the distance? Yes +132 | No -176

UFC Featherweight Champion Alexander “The Great” Volkanovski moves up in weight to challenge UFC Lightweight Champion Islam Makhachev. This bout will be Makhachev’s first title defense after capping his 11-fight win streak by beating Charles Oliveira. Volkanovski has 25 wins and one loss over his entire MMA career, his one loss being at welterweight.

Volkanovski will have to overcome a severe size disadvantage, coming in four inches shorter and from a lighter weight class. Still, he’ll have a one-inch reach advantage. Makhachev averages just over nines minutes of fight time to the Aussie’s near 17.

However, they’re separated by a minuscule 0.01 average knockdowns per 15 minutes. There’s a massive discrepancy on the feet, with Volkanovski landing 6.70 significant strikes per minute to Makhachev’s 2.37. Volkanovski absorbs 2.59 more significant strikes per minute but will have an edge in speed.

Regarding grappling, the Lightweight Champion averages 3.42 takedowns to Volkanovski’s 1.71. He also enjoys a 65 percent defense rate compared to Volkanovski’s 36, averaging 1.05 more submissions per 15 minutes.

At -400, the books have this fight weighted overwhelmingly in favor of Makhachev, but it’s so hard to count out Volkanovski. If the Featherweight Champion doesn’t have a solution for the Russian’s takedowns, this will be a tough fight to win. There’s value in an outright bet on the underdog at +285, but I like Makhachev to take this contest by submission at +155.

UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski Betting Card