Alabama Crimson Tide's National College Basketball Championship Odds and Analysis

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Mar 1, 2023

They’re no longer just a football school! Alabama has displayed some of the best offensive performances we have seen in college basketball this season and has its name amongst the favorites to cut down the nets in April.

At +900, Alabama has the third-shortest odds of winning the National Championship on the FanDuel Sportsbook. Here’s a look at their chances and various odds @ FanDuel:

College Basketball National Championship Winner +900

Alabama is one of the more fun viewings in college basketball. Head coach Nate Oats continues to instill his fast-paced, three-point-centric offensive scheme that has produced some eye-popping results this season. They boast the second-fastest pace in the nation and score 39.5 percent of their points from beyond the arc, the 39th-highest rate among 363 Division I programs.

The Crimson Tide has poured in over 100 points on five separate occasions this season. There have been plenty of games for Bama where the game is over by halftime with how quickly they can rack up the scoring.

Their 15-1 record has clinched them at least a share of the regular-season SEC title for the second time in three years. But a deep run in March has evaded the program’s history. The Crimson Tide have just one season where they advanced past the Sweet Sixteen in program history.

KenPom Offensive Rating: 18th

It all starts with freshman phenom Brandon Miller. The 6’9″ star has delivered time and time again for this team when they have needed a bucket, including a 41-point performance with a game-winning basket in a gutsy road win over South Carolina last week. He moves like a gazelle, even with his size and wingspan, while being an efficient scorer at all three levels.

Charles Bediako provides the paint presence that gives Alabama more than one dimension with the ball. The seven-footer doesn’t have the greatest motor and can often struggle with foul trouble, but he puts the ball in the basket when he is on the floor. He cashes in on 62.5 percent of his field goals and has proven to be an X-factor for the Tide. Three of their four losses this season came when Bediako had four or fewer points.

Jahvon Quinerly has blossomed from a highlight-reel-obsessed, erratic freshman at Villanova to a stud point guard with the Crimson Tide. The Hackensack, New Jersey native is 13th in the nation in assist rate and can make an instant impact when he is on the floor as a dynamic option off the bench for Nate Oats.

KenPom Defensive Rating: 2nd

Alabama doesn’t just produce these blowout scores from having an explosive offense. They also boast the fourth-best defense in the nation per KenPom’s ratings. They do not force turnovers at a high clip – just 15.7 percent of the time – but they will contest every single shot you take. They rank second nationally in effective field goal percentage and will run teams off the three-point line, allowing the ninth-fewest opposing triples in the country.

Size and length can be attributed to these successes. Alabama starts three players standing 6’9″ or taller and has an average height of over 6’6″ on the roster. When Nate Oats can obtain the length, size, and talent he targets in his recruitment, these are often the results. It would take an unconscious shooting night to score on the Tide consistently. We’ve only seen Oklahoma and Gonzaga score 90 or more points against Alabama.

Buy or Sell the Crimson Tide?

Even at +900, this feels like a spot where you can get in on Alabama. Kansas and Houston are the only teams at shorter odds, and there is easily a case to be made that the Crimson Tide are currently the best team in the nation.

They feel likely to get a No. 1 seed in March Madness, and with this talent and coaching at their disposal, a trip to the Final Four feels like the expectation here. Buy the guys out of Tuscaloosa before the NCAA Tournament.                        

Thumbnail photo via USA TODAY Sports Images

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