Mavericks-Grizzlies Preview: Memphis Safer to Rely On

We’re diving back into the Association for our basketball fix as we await March Madness’ return with a Western Conference matchup between the Dallas Mavericks and Memphis Grizzlies. Mavericks @ Grizzlies Game Information

• Location: FedEx Forum | Memphis, TN
• Time: 8:00 p.m. ET | TV: NBATV

Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving headline the injury report. Doncic has missed four consecutive games with a thigh strain but appears hopeful of a return tonight. Irving returned Saturday after a three-game absence but is back on the injury report due to the same lingering foot soreness. Of the two, Irving’s listing feels more precautionary.

Ja Morant remains out for Memphis, with Jaren Jackson Jr. questionable with calf soreness. Jackson Jr. has been pivotal in keeping the Grizzlies afloat as the Defensive Player of the Year contender has made his mark offensively most recently, dropping 25+ points in three straight games.

Santi Aldama would likely start in his potential absence, with David Roddy seeing increased minutes.

• Spread: Mavericks +4.5 (-110) | Grizzlies -4.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Mavericks (+158) | Grizzlies (-188)
• Total: Over 227.5 (-110) | Under 229.5 (-110)

It feels like the books are making this line with the assumption that both Luka and Kyrie are sitting. The Mavs were similarly a slight road dog against an inferior Los Angeles Lakers team on Saturday.

Memphis is the best home team in the league with a 29-5 record, and they’ve won five of their last six games without Morant. I’m comfortable laying the points with Memphis, but I’d wait until we get certainty on the statuses of Doncic, Irving, and Jackson Jr. before dishing out some coin. 

No props are officially posted yet due to all the injury questions, but here are a few plays I’ll be targeting. 

Tyus Jones has made the most of his opportunity, averaging 16.4 points and 8.5 assists over eight games without Morant. Target him to go over 23.5 points+assists (-102) as he’s double-doubled in five of eight. Additionally, I’ll eye up a player performance double attached to that with the Grizzlies to win.

If he can play, I’ll look to fade Jackson Jr., as his props will be overly inflated due to his recent surge. His point prop will likely sit in the low 20s, but his recent sample against Dallas is 21 points over two games combined, both without Morant. Buy his UNDER with expected scoring regression.

If Doncic and Irving cannot go, I’ll target Jaden Hardy’s OVER in points. Hardy has played at least 25 minutes in games without their stars and dropped 22+ points in five of six games. If Irving suits up, stay away, as Hardy only played six minutes last Saturday.