MLB Player Futures to Fade: Will Change of Scenery hurt Verlander & deGrom?

Opening day is upon us, alas, and as we finish up making our futures bets to monitor throughout the next six months, here are some trendy plays we’re looking to stay away from.Padres MVPs- NL MVP

On the FanDuel Sportsbook, three of the top seven MVP candidates are members of the Padres:  Juan Soto (+550), Fernando Tatis Jr. (+1000), and Manny Machado (+1200). Obviously, San Diego has a ton of firepower, but for a team that isn’t even favored to win their division, this feels like too much volume at the top of the MVP board. I’d rather eye up Ronald Acuna Jr. or Trea Turner, who have odds greater than +1000.

Judge’s 2022 campaign was remarkable and truly historic. However, in an AL MVP hunt, he’ll need to launch 60+ homers again to keep pace with the presumptive front-runner, Shohei Ohtani. Regression is going to happen, and it’s almost a lock. Varying books have his homerun total in the mid-40s, and that wouldn’t be enough to win MVP in the loaded AL. Regardless, +700 is not enough value to me. I’d rather play the chalk and back Ohtani, but I am not opposed to sprinkling some love toward Yordan Alvarez at +1200.

The NL Cy Young race just got that much more interesting with reigning AL Cy champ Justin Verlander moving to the NL. This is a loaded field, and in my mind, I’m just waiting for a 40-year-old pitcher to break down. Additionally, Verlander has already spoken publically about how he didn’t like how he was pitching as spring training came to a close. It’s a long season, and he very well, and likely, could figure it out. Every start will matter in this stacked field. 

We say it every year, but can deGrom stay healthy? In the last two seasons where deGrom made 30+ starts, 2018 and 2019, he won the Cy both years. Disregarding the wacky 2020 COVID season, deGrom only made 26 starts over the past two seasons. When he’s on the mound, the former Met might be one of the best pitchers we’ve ever seen, but we can’t count on him being there. Maybe the new scenery in Texas will help him, but I’m uncomfortable betting on his health. I’d rather target a guy like Dylan Cease at +900 or even Framber Valdez at +2000 than deGrom at +550.