Heritage Classic Outright and T-5 Picks: Homa Headlines Value Plays

Proximity stats will be vital as players will be hitting around 40% more approach shots from 150-175 and 175-200 yards than they would on an average week. The field is much stronger than in previous years due to the elevated status of the event, so course history may not be as relevant.

Last year, Jordan Spieth won the title in a sudden-death playoff against Patrick Cantlay. This year’s tournament is expected to have a similar level of competitiveness, with a winning score usually landing in the low teens.

Max Homa’s odds to win the tournament have increased to +2900, making it a great opportunity to back the Californian golfer. Despite disappointing performances with his putter in the past three outings, Homa’s win equity is high, and he is one of the best players in the sport.

His Strokes Gained: Approach numbers have been better in his last five starts than during his most recent stretch of multiple wins, making this the perfect time to back him to catch fire on the greens.

Sungjae Im finished in a tie for 16th place at Augusta National, which was a disappointment for him and his supporters. Im was a favorite to win The Masters and showed his ability with the low score in the third round. His chances of being in the mix throughout the tournament are expected to improve, especially if rain and wind are in the forecast for Friday and Saturday. Regardless of the weather, I am backing Im at +550 for a Top 5 and +2600 for an outright win, as his arrow is trending up in all four major strokes gained categories.

The 25-year-old South Korean has an affinity for Pete Dye courses, ranking highly in Off The Tee, Tee to Green, Ballstriking, and Around the Green. With nearly 18 months since his last PGA Tour victory, this may be the week that the drought ends for one of the best ball strikers in the world.

Keith Mitchell is a solid outright bet at +10000 and a top 5 prop at +1400, with elite driving and improved short-game skills.

Heritage Classic Picks