Why Bettors Should Pump Brakes On Rays Despite Unbeaten Start
Tampa's odds have predictably been slashed
The unbeaten Rays are set to wrap up their fourth series of the campaign and suddenly Tampa Bay has made its way into the World Series and best regular-season record conversation.
We should give them their flowers for holding the fourth-longest streak to begin the season in MLB history, no doubt, but I would be careful in running to the window to bet on them.
My take on the Rays before the season started was that their lineup had a high ceiling but it was likely to be volatile. Their pitching staff is solid behind Shane McClanahan but I wasn’t expecting them to be a top staff this season. So far, Tampa has dominated every team at the plate and on the bump — at the top of the leaderboard in the majority of hitting stats alongside a team ERA of 2.17. That being said, while their advanced stats may not show much negative regression coming, their schedule can almost guarantee it.
They’ve faced the Detroit Tigers, Washington Nationals, Oakland Athletics and Boston Red Sox — all last-place teams in their respective divisions. Three of those clubs have bottom-10 ERAs to start the season (Athletics and Tigers rank second-to-last and last, respectively) and are bottom-10 offenses, excluding the Red Sox.
This streak might be historic but it should also come as no surprise. Before the season started, oddsmakers gave Tampa the fourth-shortest odds at +900 to be the first team to 10 wins. That was the bet to make. You’re chasing the number now for them to have the best regular-season record as their odds went from +2200 to +450. The value is gone.
It’s also not the time to bet them to win the World Series given their odds went from around +2100 to +1000. Sure, the payout is still nice, but you’re getting the worst of the number and the odds are likely to get longer as they face a tougher schedule.
Don’t get me wrong: Tampa surely has the roster to still make a run in the playoffs, but remember we still have 150 regular-season games to go.
Another team that is off to a hot start that I do not see making a run like Tampa is the NL West-leading Arizona Diamondbacks. I’ll make this very simple: The San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers still exist. The numbers tell you everything you need to know as Arizona still has the longest odds at 20-1 to win the division.
Give it time.
