Betting on the NBA Summer League is tricky and requires research. Obviously, it’s instinctual to back notable players such as Victor Wembanyama, Brandon Miller, and Scoot Henderson, but that isn’t how Summer League has been won in the past. In reality, Summer League is meaningless for these notable players in the grand scheme of things. As soon as the players appear in a groove, they bench them for the rest of their games to keep them healthy. Essentially, it’s a dogfight of players desperate to find their way onto the backend of NBA rosters. The stars don’t win here.
If we look at the past few Summer League champions and MVPs, they are pretty much nobodies. Last year, the Portland Trail Blazers won the championship, with Trendon Watford taking MVP. The previous year, the Sacramento Kings won it, with Louis King winning MVP. Who? Before that, the Grizzlies won it all, with Brandon Clarke grabbing MVP. The message is clear.
When we look at the odds of winning it all for this year, the top-six favorites all held picks in the top seven of this past NBA Draft. As we’ve seen in the past, these teams aren’t going to overplay their highly drafted rookies. As a result, there is immense value in some of the longshots winning the Summer League, so here are some of our favorite sleeper picks here.
- Philadelphia 76ers (+4500)
We’ve already gotten some exposure to the Sixers in Salt Lake City Summer League tournament, and one thing has been clear, they compete. They narrowly lost to an NBA-ready Grizzlies squad and convincingly took down the Jazz. Led by two highly respected undrafted free agents in, Terquavion Smith and Ricky Council IV, they have the kind of talent that wins in the Summer League. Nick Nurse coached the team in Utah, something you rarely see from NBA head coaches, so if he continues in that role in Vegas, the Sixers will be a tough out.
- Los Angeles Lakers (+4000)
The Lakers, too, have already given us some insight into what they’ll look like in Vegas from their time in the California Classic, and they, too, have the formula to win it all. First-round pick Jalen Hood-Schifino shined with his playmaking and scoring, but Max Christie was the best player on the floor. Efficiently dropping buckets, Christie has a wide range of offensive tools at his disposal, and he’s the type of player built to take over the Summer League. Undrafted Colin Castleton also shined, as the experienced big man slipped out of the draft due to his age and injury concerns, but he proved he can play.
- Cleveland Cavaliers (+4500)
The Cavs made only a single draft pick in the draft, but it was for a player that can absolutely hoop in the right setting, and there isn’t one better than the Summer League. Emoni Bates is that guy, and the former No. 1 overall player in the country in high school is a gifted scorer but has had off-court concerns that resulted in him slipping. I can’t overstate this enough, but Bates truly is a gifted scorer, drawing comparisons to Kevin Durant in high school. If Bates is given free rein of this team in Vegas, he could take the Summer League by storm and lead them to the championship.
- Dallas Mavericks (+1500)
Like Bates, Jaden Hardy of the Mavericks is a proven offensive weapon built to excel in the Summer League. In a limited time with the Mavs last year, Hardy showcased a versatile scoring package with his Summer League coach, Jared Dudley, speaking publicly about he’d like to lean into Hardy’s scoring to lead the way for the Mavs this summer. In his media availability, Hardy spoke about how his focus of summer league is to win games, something you don’t always hear from NBA hopefuls in this tournament. At +1500, the Mavericks don’t have astounding odds like the other teams on the list but are still a strong value bet.
- Golden State Warriors (+7500)
When I saw that the Warriors were +7500 to win the Summer League, I gasped and immediately deposited into my sportsbook account. This team is going to be good. After two games in the California Classic, with their one loss being at the hands of Keegan Murray, being too good to play in the Summer League, Golden State has a roster built to compete in this tournament. First-round pick Brandin Podziemski will be a focal point of the offense, but Lester Quinones, who spent most of last season in the G-League, will lead the way. After averaging 23.5 points through two games, Quinones appears to be yet another one of the Warriors’ talented shooting guards who could take over Vegas and is motivated to earn a roster spot. Trayce Jackson-Davis will also play for Golden State, who might have been the steal of the second round after a successful collegiate career at Indiana. At +7500, this is a must-bet in my eyes.
