The NFL is filled with many gifted quarterbacks, and there are multiple signal-callers you can make a case for to lead the league in passing touchdowns in 2023-24.
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1. Patrick Mahomes +300
After capturing the second Super Bowl of his young career, Patrick Mahomes is again the odds-on favorite to lead the NFL in passing touchdowns. Mahomes led the NFL in passing touchdowns during the 2022-23 campaign with 41, landing him six touchdown passes ahead of the runner-up. Mahomes’ best season came in 2018 when he tossed 50 touchdown passes. Can he reach that level again? Betting against Mahomes certainly isn’t profitable. The Chiefs’ signal-caller is listed at +300 to lead the league in passing touchdowns, and although there might be better value on the board, siding with Mahomes is never a bad bet.
2. Josh Allen +500
Josh Allen is an electric presence for the Buffalo Bills and a yearly contender to lead the league in passing touchdowns. The Bills continue to boast one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses, and Allen is coming off finishing second in the league in passing touchdowns with 35. That number was slightly below his career-high of 37, and many wonder if he has yet to reach his ceiling. Allen is listed at +500 to lead the league in passing touchdowns, which is undoubtedly an accolade he’s more than capable of capturing.
3. Justin Herbert +550
We’re still somewhat waiting for a blowup campaign for Justin Herbert with the Los Angeles Chargers. He’s coming off a 2022-23 season where he threw 25 touchdown passes and ten interceptions. This was a big step back for him after combining to throw for 69 passing touchdowns in his first two seasons, which included 38 in his sophomore campaign. We’re bullish about what Kellen Moore can do with Herbert in this offense, meaning we like him to be firmly in the conversation at +550.
4. Joe Burrow +600
There are no questions anymore. Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow is an elite superstar. Burrow has already led the Bengals to play for a Super Bowl and is a perennial threat to win MVP. Burrow finished last year with the third-most passing touchdowns, throwing for 35. The weapons Burrow has with the Bengals are plentiful, and we like the value you’re getting with him at +600 to lead the league in passing touchdowns.
Once the season kicks off, look for all these quarterbacks rated each game by our NFL Props Picks Tool.
5. Kirk Cousins +1100
Some might be surprised by Kirk Cousins as a top-five odds threat to lead the NFL in passing touchdowns, but you probably shouldn’t be. Cousins finished last season with the fifth-most passing touchdowns, throwing 29. Even with him sitting in the top five, it was still the fourth-best total he’s come up with in his career, meaning there’s more to give for Cousins. With some elite offensive weapons in Minnesota, Cousins will undoubtedly be in the running at +1100.
6. Aaron Rodgers +1200
With Aaron Rodgers having a new area code in 2023-24, the future Hall of Fame signal-caller will look to finish his career on a high note. Rodgers is coming off a disappointing 2022-23 campaign with the Green Bay Packers and threw for just 26 touchdown passes. With those numbers, Rodgers still landed inside the top ten in passing touchdowns, but he certainly has more to give. With an offense that can potentially be explosive in New York, Rodgers is listed at +1200 to lead the league in passing touchdowns.
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