Purdie Boilermakers Preview, Predictions & Season Win Total Pick

Jeff Brohm took over a Purdue program with just one winning season over the previous nine years. He turned the Boilermakers into a consistent winner with four bowl appearances in five full seasons (not counting the COVID year). Only Joe Tiller has more bowls at the Indiana school. But the call of the alma mater and home was too much for Brohm to resist for a second time, so a new era of Purdue football begins. Atypical of the program, they went with a defensive coach in former Illinois coordinator Ryan Walters, considered one of the brightest young coaching minds in college football.Purdue Boilermakers Preview

2022 Record: 8-6 (6-3); Big Ten Finish: 1st in B1G West

A.P. Poll: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: No. 58

Head Coach: Ryan Walters: 0-0 (0-0) | 1st Season | Overall: 0-0

Offensive Coordinator: Graham Harrell (1st Season)

Defensive Coordinator: Kevin Kane (1st Season)

Purdue Boilermakers Futures Odds (FanDuel)

National Championship Odds: +30000 | CFB Playoff Odds: NA

B1G Championship Odds: +9500 | B1G West Odds: +1800

Win 6+ Games: +135 | Undefeated Regular Season: +35000

Regular Season Wins: OVER 5.5 +130 | UNDER 5.5 -160

National Previews: Georgia | Notre Dame | USC

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Purdue Boilermakers Preview: Why You Should Be Bullish

They might have the pieces to make it work in Graham Harrell’s Air Raid offense. Mainly quarterback Hudson Card, a transfer from Texas. He’s a talented dual-threat passer known for his accuracy and ability to quickly get rid of the football. When he’s had the opportunity, Card has been efficient, and his ability to set his pass catchers up for yards after the catch is precisely how this offense is set up. The No. 59 recruit and No. 2 dual-threat QB coming out of high school is not the type of player the Boilermakers are accustomed to landing. While they lack the star power of recent receiving units at Purdue, this might be their deepest group in quite some time, with multiple tight ends, including breakout candidate Garrett Miller, and running backs who can also play a significant role in the passing game. While setting Purdue’s freshman rushing record and becoming their first 1,000-yard back since 2008, Devin Mockobee also caught 32 passes. In addition, sixth-year senior Tyrone Tracy Jr. is shifting from wide receiver to RB2.

Boilermakers Preview: Why You Should Be Bearish

I’d be amazed if Ryan Walters has the pieces to make it work on defense. Precisely, that fit his scheme, predicated on man-to-man coverage and high-level cornerbacks, which allowed him to blitz at will at Illinois. Four defensive backs from his 2022 defense are now in the NFL, including three who went in the first round or Day 2. Walters must replace both CB starters at Purdue, and their most-experienced projected returnee, Jamari Brown (13 career starts), put his name in the portal last Friday. After having one of the best groups of corners in the Big Ten, it might be the weakest position on his defense unless they hit on the quartet of transfers they added. It’s tough enough implementing new schemes, but without the right players to run it, Walters may have to adjust while learning to be a head coach.

Breakout Player: EDGE Nic Scourton, Sophomore

In Nic Scourton, formerly Nic Caraway, Walters does have an elite talent ready to flourish in his â€œAir Strikeâ€ defense, which features a five-man front. The sophomore moves to the outside linebacker position after playing in all 14 games as a true freshman (22 tackles) at defensive end. A transition that has been seamless for the 260-pounder. He was one of two members of the 2022 class to burn their redshirt last season. A late riser as a high school senior, Scourton was the highest-rated player among Purdue’s freshmen (top 200), with only George Karlaftis more highly touted among defenders signed by Brohm. The belief in West Lafayette is that they have another exceptional pass rusher on their hands, and NFL scouts have taken notice even though he’s not yet draft-eligible.

X-Factor: The Offensive Line

The easy answer is the quarterback, but for the offense to carry the defense, Card will need his offensive line to step up. It’s a unit that saw probably their best linemen, Spencer Holstege, his likely replacement Sione Finau, and starting right tackle Eric Miller all transfer in the offseason. Potentially devastating losses could leave them as the weakest unit on offense. Starting center Gus Hartwig returns, but he’s coming off knee surgery. On the positive side, redshirt sophomores Mahamane Moussa and Marcus Mbow are two of the most promising linemen this program has produced in some time. Moussa is back at left tackle, while Mbow is shifting outside from guard. Can they find two more solid starters among the returnees and four transfers? The answer to that question will go a long way in deciding how many games Purdue wins in 2023.

Purdue Schedule Analysis

Whoever made Purdue’s out-of-conference schedule did Walters no favors, as they face two Power 5 teams after opening with Fresno State, who is coming off a ten-win season. They’re only a 4.5-point favorite over FSU and will likely be underdogs at Virginia Tech (5.5 season win total) with a rematch with Syracuse (6.5 wins) in Week 3. All three games are winnable, but all three are losable. Not only are their out-of-conference games tougher (no Indiana State this year), but so are their crossover matchups, as the Boilermakers play both Ohio State (home) and Michigan (road). At least the B1G schedule makers had no choice but to include rival Indiana (home). They host Wisconsin, Illinois, and Minnesota in the division while visiting Iowa, Nebraska, and Northwestern.

Purdue Prediction: OVER/UNDER 5.5 Wins

Considering all they lost through graduation and the transfer portal, I thought I would be more down on the 2023 Boilermakers going into this process. But other than cornerback, they have talent at most positions. This is a much better program than when Brohm arrived. However, with no cupcakes out-of-conference and Michigan and OSU on the docket, can I trust a new coach with a young staff and transfer QB who will be a full-time starter for the first time to navigate their way to six wins and a bowl? It wouldn’t surprise me if they did, but I wouldn’t bet on it. This is a pass with a lean towards the OVER at plus odds (+130). Even better, the Boilermakers are +135 to reach six wins at FanDuel, so take advantage of those odds if you’re feeling BoilerUp!

Purdue Preseason Pick

No Bet – Lean: OVER 5.5 (+145 @DraftKings Best Price)

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