Jets Significant Underdog To Cowboys Among NFL Overreactions
Don't go chasing the number after these line shifts
With NFL Week 1 now behind us, it's time to overreact.
"Overreact" is the right term because a one-game sample size isn't nearly enough to form an educated opinion on how a team will fare for the rest of the season or even in the next game.
For example, before Week 1, Joe Burrow was a co-favorite for MVP with Patrick Mahomes at some sportsbooks. The Bengals fourth-year quarterback secured a deal to become the highest-paid player in NFL history and then went on to have the worst performance of his career against the Cleveland Browns. Cincinnati's brutal 24-3 loss was the perfect spark to the football world's overreaction on how Burrow will fare the rest of the season.
Burrow's MVP odds dropped to the fifth-longest odds at 10-1. The market and bookmakers decided to fade one of the NFL's top quarterbacks after just one game.
It's not just the futures market that has been affected by Week 1 results, though. There are four Week 2 games that have seen a significant shift in odds.
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New York Jets @ Dallas Cowboys
Odds shift: From Cowboys -3 to Cowboys -9.5
Aaron Rodgers is out for the season, suffering a torn Achilles against the Buffalo Bills, after just four snaps for his new team. Despite the Jets going on to win that Week 1 matchup, they're still getting faded in the market in Week 2. A big reason for that likely is because their opponent, the Cowboys, destroyed the Giants, 40-0 on Sunday night. I'd refrain from chasing the number with Dallas here, though. The Jets still have a top-five defense and weapons both on the ground and in the passing game -- playmakers far more threatening than those the Cowboys defense faced in Week 1. If anything, getting over a touchdown with the Jets seems like the safer play.
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Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions
Odds shift: From Lions -2.5 to Lions -6
The Lions beat the Kansas City Chiefs in the season's opening game and the Seahawks lost to the Los Angeles Rams, 30-13, in their Week 1 matchup. The combination of the two results has moved this line 3.5 points. I don't have a strong opinion on the side here, but I do lean Lions. However, I don't want to chase a number through two key numbers. Remember, three (field goal) and seven (touchdown and extra point) are the most common key NFL numbers but six also has been a frequent margin of victory over the years. Detroit came into the season part of the Super Bowl conversation for a reason. This offense is legit, and as long as the defense can be serviceable, it will win and cover games like they did last year with a 12-5 record against the spread.
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San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams
Odds shift: From 49ers -4.5 to 49ers -8
This game has seen both 49ers money and over money come in. The 49ers had a convincing 30-7 Week 1 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers while the Rams took down the aforementioned Seahawks. Despite both teams' 1-0 starts, San Francisco has seen a big jump in odds because of how dominant they were from start to finish in their season debut and how their stars shined. Christian McCaffrey exploded in the run game with 152 yards and QB Brock Purdy was on point as he found Brandon Aiyuk for eight catches, 129 yards and two touchdowns. Plus, the defense outplayed the Steelers offense in every way possible, limiting them to just 3.9 yards per pass attempt and -- outside of a Najee Harris 24-yard gain -- just 17 yards on nine rushing attempts. Clearly, San Francisco is back to reclaim that "top defense in the NFL" title. The Rams don't have the star power or the defense to compare, especially with Cooper Kupp sidelined. Still, I would be careful chasing the number on Purdy and friends. Instead, consider a two-team six-point teaser with the Philadelphia Eagles to bring the 49ers from -8 to -2 and the Eagles down to -1.5 against the Minnesota Vikings. In this spot, you're getting both clubs through multiple key numbers.
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Chicago Bears @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Odds shift: From Bears -1.5 to Buccaneers-3
The Bucs started the season by taking down Justin Jefferson and the Vikings as an underdog, while the Bears proved they're still the weak link in the NFC North with a 38-20 loss to the Green Bay Packers. As a result, the line has flipped from Chicago as the favorite to Tampa as the three-point favorite. I'll keep this one simple: Tampa should get it done, but I don't trust either team. I'd stay away until we learn more about these two.
