No team has ever made the College Football Playoff with two losses. Already with one defeat on the season, the Alabama Crimson Tide can’t afford to drop another decision and maintain their National Championship aspirations.
Thankfully, they avoided a crushing home defeat at the hands of the Arkansas Razorbacks, holding on for a tight 24-21 victory on Saturday.
Huge Favorites
Bama entered the SEC showdown as substantive favorites. The Crimson Tide opened as -17.5 chalk at some shops, getting bought up to -19.5 by kick-off. That confidence did them no favors as Alabama struggled to distance themselves from the Razorbacks in Week 7’s victory.
In fact, Alabama mustered just a lone field goal in the second half, which was obviously needed to secure the win.
The more concerning trend that’s developed this season is Alabama’s inability to close games out as favorites. The Crimson Tide is just 4-3 against the spread this year, securing their last two wins by just nine points.
Remaining Schedule
Things aren’t getting any easier before the end of the season, either, as the Crimson Tide are heading into the most challenging part of their schedule. Bama has consecutive meetings against top 25 ranked conference foes. First up is a Week 8 clash with the Tennessee Volunteers before they resume a classic rivalry with the LSU Tigers after a bye week. Most importantly, both contests come within their friendly confines, giving them a leg up on their competition.
A loss to either opponent all but guarantees that Bama will be relegated to a bowl game instead of competing for the FBS title.
SEC Championship Game
Of course, running the table on the remaining schedule sets an impending clash with the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game. Obviously, that’s assuming no one can touch the two-time defending National Champs, which has been the case again in 2023.
Still, a second loss in the SEC Championship Game could be enough to warrant inclusion in the CFP semifinal. At that point, Alabama’s two losses would have come against the 11th-ranked Texas Longhorns and, presumably, the top-ranked Bulldogs.
That’s a debatable position for the CFP to buck the trend of a two-loss team not making the playoffs.
Title Contenders
The betting market is a reliable indicator of a team’s chances. As it stands, bettors are confident in Alabama’s title aspirations.
Heading into Week 8, the Crimson Tide are +1700 to win the National Championship, the eighth-best odds in the country. Moreover, three teams ahead of them on the futures board are Big Ten squads. With likely only one spot in the CFP reserved for the Big Ten in the CFP, there’s a glimmer of hope for Alabama backers.
Final Thoughts
Even with a loss, Alabama controls its own destiny over the final half of the season. Home matchups against Tennessee and LSU are on the horizon, but with a bye week separating the contests, there’s no looking ahead. That would almost assure the Crimson Tide of an SEC Championship Game berth, where they could wow the committee with a playoff-worthy performance.
Close calls aren’t defeats, and if Alabama can scrape together a few more wins, there’s no keeping them out of the playoffs.
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