Week 6 (5-0-1; +5.5 Units) was our best of the season, and we take those positive vibes into Week 7. It’s hard to believe we’re already at the season’s mid-point.
We have six Big Ten games, five in conference play, plus Penn State hosting UMass. The Nittany Lions are laying 41.5 points, while Michigan is giving 33.3 to Indiana in the Big House. Two games I’m passing. Minnesota, Nebraska, and Northwestern (all 3-3, 1-2 in Big Ten play) are sitting out this week.
Record: 22-10-1 overall (+15 units) | ATS: 12-5-1 | Team Totals: 9-5 | Game Totals: 1-0
Scared money, don’t make money. Let’s eat!
B1GGEST Bets (1.5 Units):Last Week: 2-0; Season: 4-1 (+4.5 Units)
None.
More B1G: B1G Power Rankings | Purdue vs. Ohio State | Pat Fitzgerald Lawsuit
B1GGER Bets (1 Units):Last Week: 2-0; Season: 13-1 (+12 Units)
Iowa +10.5 WISCONSIN (BetRivers)Money Line: Wisconsin -400 | Iowa +310 | Total: 34.5
Time: 4:00 p.m. ET; TV: FOX | Location: Camp Randall Stadium | Madison, WI
Wisconsin: AP Top 25: NR (29) | Coaches Poll: NR (33) | SP+: 23 | PFF: 24
Iowa: AP Top 25: NR (34) | Coaches Poll: NR (29) | SP+: 41 | PFF: 23
As much of a struggle it has been for the Iowa Hawkeyes, I’m still not completely sold on the Wisconsin Badgers. They were only favored by 13.5 points against Rutgers and, after not covering, are a double-digit favorite against the Hawkeyes? Feels like too much to me.
Wisconsin has played one top-50 team, Washington State (No. 27 on SP+), and the Badgers lost 31-22. Rutgers is 58th, Purdue is 73rd, Georgia Southern is 81st, and Buffalo is 112th. So why are we sure the Badgers are that much better than Iowa?
The only thing I’m sure of is the best unit in this game is Iowa’s defense (OK, we also know Iowa’s offense is the worst, to be fair).
We’ll need quarterback Deacon Hill (a former Badger) to play better than he did last week. Still, the Hawkeyes do have offensive weapons in running backs Kaleb Johnson (134 rushing yards last week), Leshon Williams (5.7 YPC), and tight end Erick All (97 receiving yards last week).
The field position battle will also be significant in the Heartland Trophy game, which leans towards Iowa (seventh in net field position), especially when they have the ball where they’re ranked 12th vs. a Badgers defense that’s 76th. Short fields will be Iowa’s chance to pull off the upset.
For some sharps, a double-digit dog with a total smaller than 40 is an automatic play on the underdog. The bottom line is that this is the second straight fade of an overvalued Wisconsin team.
Check out SportsGrid’s CFB Game Picks and CFB Player Props.
BADGERS UNDER 22.5 (FanDuel)This number is disrespectful—the spread and the Wisconsin team total. For Iowa to cover, the odds are their defense does much of the heavy lifting, as they did for us last week against Purdue.
And we will give you the same stat we did in Week 6. After holding Purdue to 14 points, the Hawkeyes have kept 16 of their last 17 opponents not named Ohio State, Michigan, or Penn State to 17 points or less. Outside of their loss to PSU, the most points the Hawkeyes have allowed in 2023 is 16 (which included a defensive TD).
We’re not ashamed to bank on Phil Parker’s consistency. His defense is ranked fifth in net points per drive. Behind a stout front seven (12 TFLs last week), senior linebackers Jay Higgins and Nick Jackson have combined for 127 tackles; Iowa excels on early downs—15th in percentage of first downs on first/second down (Wisconsin’s offense is 77th) and 20th in early down EPA.
Then they let the pass defense take over (13th in defensive success rate). CB Cooper DeJean and CASH Sebastian Castro are playmakers with a pair of INTs each. We also saw their pass rush come alive last week against a spread attack with six sacks against Purdue.
DT Logan Lee had two sacks against the Boilermakers, while Joe Evans has 21 career sacks, and Deontae Craig has 9.5 sacks since last season coming off the edge. They will make an impact.
In his career, Wisconsin QB Tanner Mordecai has struggled against the better defenses he’s faced, and he averaged 4.7 yards per pass against Rutgers a week ago. Iowa’s forward-facing zone defense will be a tough matchup for the passer, whose accuracy can come and go…especially with winds expected to reach 28 MPH.
In the last three games, Mordecai has taken advantage of DBs with their backs to the QB and rushed for four touchdowns and 130 yards. That’s not happening this week.
B1G Bets (1/2 Unit):Last Week: 1-0-1; Season: 5-8-1 (-1.5 Units)
More CFB Previews: Colorado-Stanford | Oregon-Washington | USC-Notre Dame | UNC-Miami | Alabama-Arkansas
Michigan State +4.5 RUTGERS (FanDuel)Money Line: Rutgers -200 | Michigan State +164 | Total: 39.5
Time: 12:00 p.m. ET; TV: BTN | Location: SHI Stadium | Piscataway, NJ
Rutgers: AP Top 25: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: 58 | PFF: 65
Michigan State: AP Top 25: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: 59 | PFF: 78
I have been touting the improvement in Piscataway and even took Rutgers last week against Wisconsin, while Michigan State is coming off three straight losses by at least ten points.
But Rutgers doesn’t have Iowa’s defense (or Cooper DeJean returning punts), and their offense is nowhere near what Washington or Maryland can put up. Those are the three teams that beat the Spartans.
Taking out the COVID season, the last time the Scarlet Knights beat a B1G East team not named Indiana was 2017. Now, they’re supposed to win against Michigan State by more than 4.5 points? I don’t see it.
Unless we have evidence that the Spartans have entirely given up on the season, this line shouldn’t be higher than three points, in my opinion. SP+ has RU ranked 58th and MSU ranked 59th, which sounds right.
MSU is coming off their “bye” week, so if there’s any time to get right, it’s this week against Rutgers. A big part of their losses to Maryland and Iowa was nine turnovers in two games, something that’s been worked on over the past two weeks.
Interim coach Harlon Barnett has been mum about his starting quarterback for Saturday, which has Rutgers preparing for Noah Kim and Katin Houser. I’d be surprised Houser did not play at all. Barnett did reveal that the extra time has allowed the Spartans to heel up, with two or three players set to return from injury. Tight end Maliq Carr, a weapon in the throw game, is one of those players.
An upset here wouldn’t surprise me.
RUTGERS UNDER 22.5 (BetMGM)MSU has a decent defense (29th in SP+), ranked 43rd in success rate. They’re especially tough against the run, 16th in EPA/rush, and 36th in success rate, which Rutgers wants to do.
Most of the improvement we’ve seen from the Scarlet Knights is on defense. The offense (80th in SP+) is still rather bad. They’re 94th in offensive success rate—103rd passing and 78th rushing—and 83rd in EPA/pass.
Gavin Wimsatt is better than he was a year ago, but his 51.8 completion percentage leaves much to be desired. If RU gets behind the chains—120th in percentage of first downs on first/second down and 93rd in early down EPA—which they probably will, they’re in trouble. The State defense is first in third/fourth down success rate.
Yes, Rutgers has scored 35-plus three times. That was against Temple, Virginia Tech, and Wagner. In three Big Ten games, their scoring average is 14.7 points per game, with a high of 24 against Northwestern, who allowed 34 points to Minnesota, 38 to Duke, and 41 to Penn State.
Take out Washington (third in scoring offense) and Maryland (27th), Sparty has allowed 15.7 PPG. Rutgers (77th in scoring offense) is much more MSU’s pace.
MARYLAND -13.5 Illinois (FanDuel)Money Line: Maryland -550 | Illinois +400 | Total: 51.5
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET; TV: NBC | Location: SECU Stadium | College Park, MD
Maryland: AP Top 25: NR (33) | Coaches Poll: NR (30) | SP+: 31 | PFF: 25
Illinois: AP Top 25: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: 68 | PFF: 77
Through six weeks, Maryland has been the best B1G team outside the East’s top three, while Illinois has been as bad as anyone in the conference.
The Terps are 21st in EPA margin, 17th in net points/drive, and 18th in net field position. The Illini are 81st in EPA margin, 101st in net points/drive, and 132nd in net field position.
Led by Taulia Tagovailoa (14 TD passes), Maryland’s offense has been excellent: ranked 21st EPA/rush, 24th EPA/pass, 25th in passing success rate, and 30th in early downs EPA. Roman Hemby (344 yards) is a quality runner, while Colby McDonald (7.2 YPC) is amid an excellent bounce-back season.
On the flip side, despite a solid D-line, Illinois has been awful defensively: ranked 71st EPA/rush, 81st EPA/pass, 103rd early down EPA, and 114th in success rate (108th vs. the pass, 109th vs. the run).
I don’t see how the Illini slows the Terps down. Even more so, how do they get them off the field? Maryland is 11th in third/fourth down success rate, and the Illini are 121st defensively.
Illinois has lost four of five (win vs. FAU at home), including by 25 points at 2-4 Purdue and by 13 points at home to 3-3 Nebraska. Neither of those teams is as good as Maryland, who is 5-0 against teams not in the top five with an average score of 38.6 to 13.2.
In case you’re worried about the Terps rebounding, last season, they beat Rutgers 37-0 after losing to OSU and Michigan State 27-13 after falling to Michigan (they played PSU the week before OSU). Like this week, both of those games were at home.
Maryland’s defense continues to be undervalued by the market. They’ve been good against the pass all season, 42nd in EPA/pass. The Terps have limited first downs on first/second down (37th) and are very solid on third/fourth downs (43rd in success rate).
While a bit inconsistent against the run, they were stellar against Ohio State last week when they allowed 62 yards on 33 carries (1.9 YPC).
Illinois hasn’t gotten much going offensively: 76th EPA/pass, 77th EPA/rush, 106th in early down EPA, and 105th in third/fourth down success rate. It’s not a formula for success, especially considering how they’ve performed against the better defenses they’ve faced.
The Illini scored 13 points vs. Penn State, which isn’t anything to be ashamed of but managed just seven points against the Cornhuskers.
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