Playoff baseball is upon us, and the MLB action is intensifying. As such, we’re breaking down Saturday’s action, highlighting several picks from the SportsGrid projections. We use a star rating to gauge each play’s success probability. These are some of our favorite selections from today’s MLB Game Picks.
MLB Divisional Series Preview: Look Here For Some Value!
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros
Twins Moneyline (+132): 4-Star Rating
The Divisional Round kicks off with a pair of American League contests on Saturday, and we have plays from both. Our highest-rated pick comes in backing the underdog Minnesota Twins in the series opener against the defending World Series Champion Houston Astros.
Minnesota is coming off a wild card round win over the Toronto Blue Jays, meaning they’ve burned through their preferred pitching options. Nevertheless, starting pitching has been a strength for the Twins all season, and Bailey Ober is ready to deal against the Stros.
Analytically, Ober has been an elite pitcher all year. The soft-throwing righty ranks in the 74th percentile in expected ERA, churning out a 3.63 benchmark, thanks to his 33.5% chase rate (91st percentile) and 5.0% walk rate (93rd percentile). He can use his mix to keep a stumbling Astros squad off-kilter in the batter’s box.
Houston’s production and output took a hit over the final month of the regular season. Their team OPS and runs per game decreased, with a surge in strikeouts, jumping over 7.0%. Ober will compound those issues, staking the Twins to an early series lead against the Astros.
Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles
Rangers Moneyline (+122): 3-Star Rating
We’re highlighting another highly-rated underdog from our projections with our second pick. The Texas Rangers made short work of the heavily favored Tampa Bay Rays in the opening round, setting up an ALDS clash with the Baltimore Orioles. According to our projections, the Rangers are poised to carry their postseason momentum into this afternoon’s matinee.
Texas absolutely pounded the Rays staff. Through two games, the Rangers outscored Tampa 11-1, thanks to contributions from everyone in their lineup. Texas saw an increase in OPS and runs scored, thanks to a more aggressive approach on the base paths and a revival of their power stroke. More importantly, they are poised to continue that success against the O’s.
Baltimore opens the postseason by sending Kyle Bradish to the mound. The 27-year-old pitches to contact, and that’s not a good thing for the Orioles. Bradish ranks in the 27th percentile in hard-hit rate, potentially hurting him at hitter-friendly Camden Yards. Moreover, Bradish’s expected ERA is above actual, implying he’s a regression candidate at the worst time of year.
Limited experience puts the Orioles at a disadvantage against the Rangers, and we’re expecting to see that play out early in the series. Per our projections, backing the Rangers as +122 underdogs is rated as a three-star play.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Over 8 (-114): 3-Star Rating
We are rounding out our trio of picks with a play on the over between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers. The Diamondbacks’ success has been premised on offense, and they show no signs of slowing down now. Of course, that’s playing to the Dodgers’ strength in what should be a high-scoring Game 1.
Both teams are sending their top pitchers to the mound, but Clayton Kershaw and Merrill Kelly can get knocked around. Kershaw posted the highest expected ERA of his career this year, toting around a 3.82 mark and posting diminished analytics. Likewise, Kelly posted below-average metrics in expected batting average, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity.
LA ended the regular season with the second-most runs and second-best OPS. They are poised to maintain that standard in the series opener against the D-Backs. Still, Arizona’s scorching offense can keep pace after opening the postseason with 11 runs, four homers, and a .768 OPS through the first round.
All of those factors play into taking the over on Saturday night.
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