The MLB offseason goes as Shohei Ohtani goes, and it's his decision that will dictate not only how things go this winter but what the sport looks like for the next decade.
Sounds a little dramatic, yeah? Perhaps. However, there has never been this kind of player reaching the market at this point in a Hall of Fame career. When healthy, the dual-threat Ohtani is easily the most valuable player in baseball. And even though Tommy John surgery will hamper his ability to pitch early in his next contract, the Japanese phenom is about to get paid in the biggest kind of way.
The expert predictions and projections are staggering, with forecasts of $500 million and beyond. Eventually, the market will work itself out, begging the question of which team is going to step up to the plate and make that record-breaking commitment.
According to various reports, roughly a third of the league could ultimately throw its hat into the ring. That's made for some interesting handicapping from oddsmakers and sportsbooks. DraftKings Sportsbook this week released its initial next-team odds for Ohtani.
To the surprise of no one, the Los Angeles Dodgers lead the way, followed by some big-market teams with extremely deep pockets.
Team Shohei Ohtani takes next regular-season plate appearance
Dodgers +110
Cubs +350
Giants +650
Mets +750
Yankees +800
Rangers +900
Red Sox +1000
Mariners +1200
Angels +1600
Phillies +1800
Blue Jays +2000
Padres +2000
Field (any other team) +2000
It's easy to see why the Dodgers lead the field.
Ohtani spent the first six seasons of his career with the Los Angeles Angels, so he's obviously familiar with the area and probably wouldn't even have to move. The Dodgers are also a good baseball team, so that represents an upgrade from the Halos, and LA has been willing and able to throw money around in the last decade or so. The Dodgers potentially have a lot of money coming off the books, especially if Clayton Kershaw and J.D. Martinez aren't back for 2024.
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The Cubs also make sense. They're planning on being in the mix, according to The Athletic, and it's clear Chicago is out to get better this winter. The jaw-dropping move to hire Craig Counsell as manager signaled as much. The Cubbies have a history of pursuing Japanese free agents, too. They signed Seiya Suzuki prior to the 2022 season, they have pursued players like Masahiro Tanaka or Kodai Senga, and they famously gave Sports Illustrated cover boy Kosuke Fukudome his American start.
Red Sox fans, of course, are hoping the 10-1 next to their team's name represents great value. Boston, even more so than the Cubs, has a history of signing big-name, big-money Japanese players. We even saw Ohtani and Sox outfielder Masataka Yoshida flourish as teammates at the World Baseball Classic in the spring. Ohtani is a New Balance guy, so going to Boston would allow him to be close to one of his top sponsors' home base. Red Sox chairman Tom Werner said recently the team plans to go "full throttle" to rectify last-place finishes in three of the last four seasons, and nothing would prove that like going all in for Ohtani.
