Warren Sharp Sees a Specific Chiefs Passing Formation Working vs. Ravens
In the upcoming NFL clash between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens, Warren Sharp‘s strategic analysis offers a fascinating look into how the Chiefs’ offense, led by Patrick Mahomes, can exploit the Ravens’ defensive weaknesses.
Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.
Sharp points out an underutilized aspect of the Chiefs’ offense: “Patrick Mahomes ranks 45th in play action usage rate out of 48 quarterbacks with 100 plus attempts this season.” Despite this low ranking, Sharp doesn’t see a significant increase in play action as a viable strategy for the Chiefs in this matchup. Instead, he suggests a different approach: “I would prefer the Kansas City Chiefs to utilize a lot of play action against the Ravens because the Ravens really struggled to defend it.”
Check out SportsGrid’s NFL game picks and NFL Props Picks all Season Long.
According to Sharp, the key to unlocking the Ravens’ defense lies in the use of multiple tight end sets. “The Baltimore Ravens struggle massively against two tight end or three tight end passing formations,” Sharp explains. This tactical shift could be crucial for the Chiefs, as the Ravens tend to load the box when facing heavier personnel groupings, making them more vulnerable to the pass.
Warren Sharp has a Prop Play on a 49ers Tight End Right Here.
Sharp delves deeper into the statistics to illustrate this point: “On early downs, the Ravens defend three wide receiver formations with light boxes on 74% of the snaps, ranking seventh most in light boxes. They are quite effective against the pass in these scenarios.” However, the dynamic changes significantly when facing two or more tight ends. “The Ravens will use seven-plus box defenders on an above-average 87% of the snaps against such formations, making them easier to pass against,” he notes.
The effectiveness of the Ravens’ defense varies dramatically based on the offensive personnel. “Against 11 personnel passes, they rank number three in EPA per attempt and number four in success rate. But defending two tight end passes, they rank 10th worst in EPA per attempt and 26th in yards per attempt,” Sharp highlights. The yards per attempt allowed by the Ravens jumps from 5.7 to 8.7 when moving from 11 personnel passes to 12-plus personnel passes.
Warren Sharp’s analysis suggests that the Kansas City Chiefs should significantly incorporate two-tight-end sets into their game plan against the Baltimore Ravens. This approach could exploit the Ravens’ defensive vulnerability to heavier formations and potentially lead to significant offensive gains for the Chiefs, primarily through the air.
Watch Warren Sharp’s and all of SportsGrid’s Prop Picks on SportsGrid’s YouTube Channel
