Let's continue our wrap-up coverage today with American League pitchers to watch heading into the 2010 season. With pitchers, I generally look for young arms who are on the verge of a huge breakout, so you can lock in a big profit with a less valuable draft selection. In most drafts, you can wait until the middle rounds and still put together a high level collection of fantasy arms.
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Phil Hughes, P, Yankees: He is comparable to the Dodgers' Chad Billingsley in that he learned to efficiently get hitters out this season from the bullpen and should make a smooth transition back to the rotation in 2010. I believe he'll pitch between 180-200 innings, win 12-15 games, post an ERA around 3.50 with a K-rate above eight per nine innings. That is maximum value out of a middle-to-late-round selection.
Brett Anderson, P, Athletics: A power lefty, the young A's hurler took the league by storm this season, boasting a blistering fastball (92.6 mph average) and three other quality offerings. His current 4.21 ERA is solid but should drop even further in 2010, possibly as low as 3.50 (due in part to his home park). He is very similar to Jon Lester, but with a different arsenal. I'll be buying him everywhere next spring and reaping the benefits all season long.
Jon Lester, P, Red Sox: Speaking of Lester, he is my major
breakout candidate of 2010, and could easily post similar numbers to those
Zack Greinke posted this season. His stuff is elite from the left side, and
his growth in K/9 rate proves how dominant he actually is (6.50 in '08,
9.94 in '09). He'll go slightly after the top tier of starters, but
could prove to be one of the league's best by season's end.
Clay Buchholz, P, Red Sox: Bad luck got the better of him in '08 (.366 BABIP, 6.75 ERA), but he stormed back on the scene in '09 (6-3, 3.49 ERA) and will be a fixture in the Sox rotation from here on out. His stuff has always been elite, but he'll still need a bit more seasoning to reach his full value, so expect No. 2 fantasy starter value in 2010.
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John Lackey, P, Angels: What you get here is consistency: A mid-3.00 ERA, a K/9 rate of 7.50, double-digit wins and the possibility of 200 innings pitched (minor injuries have derailed that recently). He'll be a free agent this winter and is one of the bigger prizes out there. Expect him to sign on with a contender. A switch to the NL would be great for his value, driving his stock higher.
Mariano Rivera, P, Yankees: He's a lock for at least 40 saves every season, as well as a set of strong ratios and a pile of strikeouts. Even at his advanced age (40), fully expect top-flight numbers once again and even well into his 40s.
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Scott Feldman, P, Rangers: He benefited from lots of good luck this season: a BABIP of .265, a FIP of 4.17 and a 75.2 percent strand rate (baserunners who don't score). As those numbers normalize, his ERA will rise, which should deflate his win total significantly. Also of concern is his K/9 rate of 5.30. He could be a Mark Buehrle-type pitcher with some improvement, but don't expect a repeat of '09.
Edwin Jackson, P, Tigers: The velocity is elite (94.6 mph average), but he faded down the stretch this season. In the first half, he had a 2.52 ERA, but it ballooned to 4.80 in the second half. His FIP this year is 4.24, much higher than his actual ERA of 3.25, proof that luck was on his side. Add in his low .279 BABIP, and you have a regression candidate for 2010. I can see his ERA settle in around 3.75-4.00 next season, with a good number of wins for a solid Tigers team.
