Last week, fellow NESN.com writer Jeff Howe (a virtual NFL encyclopedia) gave us the nitty-gritty on all the offseason goings-on in the AFC East.
Two days out from the start of training camp, the next question arises: Do any of those changes pose a threat to the Patriots’ reign over the division?
Yes, yes, New England didn’t win the East last season. But they deserve a mulligan. Any time a team goes 11-5 with a quarterback that hadn’t started a football game since high school, plus a season-ending injury to its starting running back, that should be good enough to be labeled the favorites the following year.
Don’t get me wrong: The doubters are out there.
“Tom Brady’s knee won’t last.”
“The Dolphins got Jason Taylor back. I mean, Jason Taylor!”
“You see Matt Sanchez? What a stud. He’s the next Namath, man. He looked awesome in GQ.”
In response to the first point: Brady’s now almost a year removed from his injury, has perhaps the best offensive line in the game to protect him and never relied much on knee-driven speed in the first place.
And if we can make comparisons, take a look at the comeback trajectory of Carson Palmer. The guy blows his knee out in January 2006 (almost the exact same injury as Brady — the doctor told him it could be career-ending), starts every game the following season and puts up (arguably) the best statistics of his career.
Brady will be fine.
As to the other arguments above: Taylor’s 34 years old, and Joe Namath threw more career interceptions (220) than touchdowns (173).
But let’s get more specific, with a look at how the Patriots have improved at just about every position since 2008.
Defensive backfield
Name the Pats’ biggest weakness in 2008. Secondary. Did you even have to hesitate? Rodney Harrison was too old and balky-kneed, Brandon Meriweather was still green, Ellis Hobbs was good but undisciplined and had no protection, and Deltha O’Neal simply didn’t get it done.
The result: New England gave up more than 200 yards passing per game.
The solution: Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden. Sure, Springs is a bit old (34), but he has the experience (and still the skill set) to bring promising youngsters Terrence Wheatley and Jonathan Wilhite along.
No more secondary problem.
Linebacker
Sure, New England traded away Mike Vrabel, but let’s face it: The guy’s on the decline. He’s about to turn 34 and put up pedestrian numbers last year, with just 40 tackles and four sacks.
Defensive Rookie of the Year Jerod Mayo, meanwhile, now comes into his second season with some experience under his belt, as do Pierre Woods and Gary Guyton, both of whom showed last year that they can more than suffice as replacements for Vrabel.
Shawn Crable is starting camp on the PUP list, but Adalius Thomas is healthy and ready to contribute.
Defensive line
No news is good news on this front. Beasts Vince Wilfork and Richard Seymour remain up front, with depth provided by Jarvis Green and draftee Ron Brace out of Boston College.
Ty Warren is recovering from offseason surgery to repair a groin injury.
Running back
New England’s running back-by-committee worked wonders last year, placing the Pats sixth in the NFL in yards rushing per game (142). Add Laurence Maroney and Fred Taylor to that mix, and you’re looking at perhaps the most potent running attack in the league.
Wide receiver
You keep Wes Welker and Randy Moss, and tack on Joey Galloway and tight ends Chris Baker and Alex Smith. Fifty touchdowns for Brady will be within sight again.
Offensive line
Again, no news is good news. The core remains the same on the line: Matt Light, Logan Mankins, Dan Koppen, Stephen Neal and Nick Kaczur. Yes, that unit gave up 48 sacks in ’08, but just 21 with Brady behind center the year before. With the golden boy back in the pocket, the O-line should be back to form.
If not, draftees Sebastian Vollmer and Rich Ohrnberger should be able to fill in nicely. Vollmer, for one, is 6-foot-7, 314 pounds. Try getting through that.
Quarterback
And here’s the clincher. Let’s say Sanchez shines brightly in the Big Apple, or Terrell Owens finally gives Buffalo a passing game, or Chad Pennington’s pea-shooter arm miraculously lifts the Dolphins to another unexpected finish. Let’s make all the crazy assumptions we want.
Doesn’t matter. The Patriots’ biggest upgrade is one they really didn’t have to do anything to get. Bring Brady back. Yes, Matt Cassel was admirable in replacement, but let’s not kid ourselves. Cassel completed 63.4 percent of his passes for 3,700 yards and 21 touchdowns.
Brady in 2007? Sixty-nine percent, 4,800 yards, 50 TDs.
Take it together with the Pats’ upgrades in the secondary and offensive backfield, and you’re looking at the AFC East champs.
