How important?
Since the division series format came into existence in 1995, there have been 56 five-game division series (prior to this postseason). The team that took Game 1 went on to win 39 of those series, or 70 percent of the time.
Of those 39 Game 1 winners, 22 swept the opposition out of the playoffs. Twelve teams went on to win in four games. And five won in five.
In a short series, the team that wins the first game has a clear advantage. All the pressure shifts to the side that loses the opener, and history has proven that teams that play loose play better than teams who can turn coal into diamonds.
Call it the Ferris Bueller theory. The team that doesn’t take itself too seriously has the most fun, and the team that has the most fun gets all the glory. There’s a reason Ferris Bueller’s Day Off wasn’t called Cameron Frye’s Day Off.
The stakes might be higher playing in October than playing hooky, but the endgame is all the same – finding the perfect balance between fearlessness and skill, recklessness and production, chaos and serendipity. Luck is when preparation meets opportunity, and success is when talent intersects with the right attitude. To be a champion requires a whole lot of talent and a little bit of luck.
Every team begins the postseason with the same record. One loss tightens the noose, and nobody wants to go down 0-2 in a division series. Only four teams have ever come back from an 0-2 deficit to win a five-game series: the ’95 Mariners (vs. Yankees), ’99 Red Sox (vs. Indians), ’01 Yankees (vs. A’s) and ’03 Red Sox (vs. A’s). And none of those four teams ended up winning the World Series.
So why tempt fate? Why rely on the baseball gods to make an exception to the rule and grant an exemption? Why think it’s possible to spit into the wind and not get wet?
Losing the first game of the division doesn’t guarantee a visit to the clubhouse from the Grim Reaper. Seventeen teams have lost Game 1 of a division series and come back to win the series (nine in four games, and eight in five). But of those 17, just four were the last team standing in the playoffs: the ’96 Yankees, ’00 Yankees, ’02 Angels and ’03 Marlins.
Players do everything in their power to win in the postseason, but there’s an added incentive to come up big in Game 1. The odds are stacked against clubs when they dig a hole.
The home teams won all three division series openers on Wednesday. The Red Sox hope to break that trend against the Angels on Thursday night in Anaheim.
All signs point to a wild ride.
Buckle up.
